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The net long dollar position increased by another $2.4 billion over the reporting week, totaling $16.1 billion, showing confidently bullish positioning. The dollar gained mainly against the euro and the yen, with minor repositioning against other currencies.
The increase in the long dollar position is logical and easily explained: the more the market doubts that the Fed will begin to cut rates, the longer the dollar will remain in a high-rate environment, the higher its yield relative to other currencies, and therefore, the higher the demand for the dollar.
The US labor market report also came with surprises. Data showed that the market added 303,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in March, significantly more than both the 200,000 expected by economists and the historical average of 190,000. The report also showed that the average hourly earnings increased by 0.3% month-on-month, indicating accelerated wage growth, which causes inflation-related concern among Fed policymakers. Fed representatives Logan and Bowman described the current situation almost identically, saying that inflation progress has stalled. Yes, the inflation situation is rather complicated, but such reports favorably affect the dollar, enhancing its bullish prospects.
During Easter celebrations, Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled that strong data make it possible to postpone the rate cut cycle to gain more confidence in inflation cooling. The yield on TIPS bonds, an excellent indicator of inflation expectations, is rising. In December, it dropped to 2.06%, while on Friday, the indicator rose to a more than five-month high of 2.45%.
In addition to jobs data, other reports were quite optimistic. The US Manufacturing ISM was significantly above expectations in March, indicating the start of production expansion for the first time since 2022. US consumption expanded by 0.4% in February, and the Services ISM in March slightly decreased from February but remained in growth territory.
Positive data acts as a driving force behind the US dollar's rally amidst changing forecasts for the Fed's rate. If at the beginning of last week, investors leaned towards the first rate cut occurring in June with a total of 3 cuts in 2024, by the end of the week, expectations for the first cut were evenly split between June and July.
This indicates that the dollar looks more than confident compared to its competitors. There is virtually no reason for selling it, except for one factor - a rise in gold prices, which may indicate an overall increase in demand for safe-haven assets in anticipation of a global slowdown.
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