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30.12.202015:29 विदेशी मुद्रा विश्लेषण और समीक्षा: New coronavirus variant: May it destroy the global economy?

Recently, it became known about a new strain of coronavirus in the UK and Europe, which is more infectious and fast-spreading. Countries are reintroducing strict quarantines and closing recently opened borders. People are revolting against such measures. They are afraid of falling below the poverty line, while entrepreneurs are afraid of going bankrupt.

Economists believe that the collapse of the world economy may occur very soon. If countries continue introducing strict quarantines, the drop in GDP will accelerate to 10%. The repeated quarantine may finally kill the entire small business. The service industry, hotel business, tourism, and restaurant sectors have been hit hard and now, they are trying to stay afloat. The fact is these organizations were banned from working on New Year's holidays. The ECB will again have to allocate billions of euros to support the Europeans.

By the way, the EU has recently agreed on a basic stimulus package of €1.8 trillion. Initially, it was assumed that the money would be used to recover from the first wave of the pandemic. However, it is obvious that this amount will also be used to restrain the economy from a deeper decline during the second wave.

Experts do not exclude that the EU, following the example of the United States, will expand the program of support measures next year. They also noted that the introduction of a new anti-crisis package of measures would depend on the effectiveness of vaccination and the absence or presence of new strains of coronavirus.

BRITAIN ON THE EDGE OF CRISIS

In the UK, it is forbidden to travel to other regions, as the epidemiological situation in the country is extremely difficult.

Experts believe that shutting down a country that has found an unknown type of virus is a good decision. However, on the other hand, the consequences are harmful: rising inflation, weakening of the pound sterling, and closure of some small businesses.

The UK government will have to re-approve a package of assistance to the population and small businesses. The total size may reach 50 billion pounds, the economy can be reduced up to 8-10% of GDP, experts say.

In addition, from January 1, 2021, the UK will leave the EU and will have full political and economic independence. Definitely, this will cause even greater damage to the economy. Many factories in the country focused on free access to EU markets. Now, along with the lockdown, logistics, services, and manufacturing will be paralyzed. Many experts say that Great Britain is entering a crisis. The country's government has already advised supermarkets to stock up on food.

Kate Smirnova,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
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