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15.01.202507:32 विदेशी मुद्रा विश्लेषण और समीक्षा: What to Pay Attention to on January 15? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

There are few macroeconomic events scheduled for Wednesday, but almost all are very important. In the UK, the inflation report for December will be released. Although the Bank of England has not significantly softened its monetary policy, this report could influence its stance. As a result, the market reaction may be strong. In the US, the inflation report will also be published. If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rises significantly in December, it will reduce the chances of the Federal Reserve easing its monetary policy in 2025, which could lead to an increase in the value of the US dollar.

Additionally, Germany will release its annual GDP report, which is very important. It is expected that the GDP will decline by 0.2%, and such a figure is unlikely to support the value of the euro. In the European Union, a report on industrial production will be released, which typically may show results weaker than expected.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

Among the key events to watch, the speeches by European Central Bank representatives Philip Lane and Luis de Guindos are noteworthy. While their remarks may be significant, these are unlikely to signal changes in the ECB's monetary stance.

More importantly, the upcoming addresses by Federal Reserve officials Austan Goolsbee, Neel Kashkari, and Thomas Barkin will occur after the release of the U.S. inflation report. Their insights could provide fresh perspectives on monetary policy, potentially leading to new trading strategies for the U.S. dollar.

General Conclusions:

On the third trading day of the week, we can expect strong movements in both currency pairs. The direction of these movements will hinge on the inflation reports and Germany's GDP data. Currently, it seems likely that both the euro and the pound will continue to decline. However, the reports mentioned could also provoke a decline in the U.S. dollar. Throughout the day, the direction of movement may shift multiple times.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important Events and Reports: Found in the economic calendar, these can heavily influence price movements. Exercise caution or exit the market during their release to avoid sharp reversals.

Forex trading beginners should remember that not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing proper money management are essential for long-term trading success.

*यहां पर लिखा गया बाजार विश्लेषण आपकी जागरूकता बढ़ाने के लिए किया है, लेकिन व्यापार करने के लिए निर्देश देने के लिए नहीं |

Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
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