S&P500
US stock market: two days of gains from support levels
Snapshot of major US indices on Monday:
- Dow Jones: +0.9%
- NASDAQ: +0.3%
- S&P 500: +0.6% (closed at 5,675; range: 5,500 – 6,000)
Monday's trading session maintained a positive bias throughout the day. Investors stuck to the "buy-the-dip" strategy after the S&P 500 entered correction territory last week.
Losses in mega-cap stocks initially weighed on the index's performance, but broader market participation signaled stronger buying interest beneath the surface.
Advancers outpaced decliners by 4 to 1 on the NYSE. On Nasdaq, the ratio was 5 to 2. Buying activity accelerated across multiple sectors throughout the session, pushing the major indices to session highs. This followed a Bloomberg report suggesting that newly appointed US Trade Representative Greer aims for a more structured approach to the implementation of reciprocal tariffs on April 2.
The market rebound was also supported by recoveries in key mega-cap stocks:
- Apple (AAPL 214.00, +0.51, +0.2%) recovered after falling 1.6% intraday.
- Microsoft (MSFT 388.70, +0.14, +0.04%) bounced back after dropping 0.8% to its session low.
These two stocks account for 13% of the S&P 500's total market capitalization.
Wall Street is alert to pending economic data. Investors closely monitored economic data released in the morning, including:
- Retail sales for February, which came in weaker than expected.
- The New York Fed's March Manufacturing Survey indicated a decline in business activity, along with rising input and output prices.
Retail control group sales (excluding autos, gasoline, building materials, and food services) rose 1.0%, showing resilience in core spending.
Sector performance: 10 of 11 S&P 500 sectors finished higher
Energy (+1.7%) led the gains, supported by higher oil prices (WTI crude: $67.58 per barrel, +0.39, +0.6%)
Oil prices climbed on renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East after President Trump warned Iran that further Houthi rebel attacks on US ships would be seen as Iran-backed aggression.
Middle East instability continues to drive oil price gains amid supply concerns.
Treasury Yields and Fixed Income Markets
Treasury yields fluctuated as stock buying intensified.
- The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield ended the session unchanged at 4.31%.
- The 2-year Treasury yield rose three basis points to 4.05%.
Year-to-date performance of major indices:
- Dow Jones: -1.7%
- S&P 500: -3.5%
- S&P Midcap 400: -4.8%
- Nasdaq Composite: -7.8%
- Russell 2000: -7.3%
- February Retail Sales Report:
Economic calendar on March 17
Retail sales: +0.2% month-over-month (consensus: +0.7%)
January retail sales revised lower to -1.2% (previously -0.9%)
Excluding autos, retail sales: +0.3% (consensus: +0.4%)
Retail control group sales: +1.0% (strong recovery after -1.0% decline in January)
Takeaway: The strong rebound in core retail sales eased concerns about a potential GDP contraction in Q1.
- New York Fed's March Manufacturing Survey:
- General Business Conditions Index: Dropped to -20.0 (from 5.7 in February)
- Prices Paid Index: Rose five points to 44.9 (highest in over two years)Prices Received Index: Increased three points to 22.4 (highest since May 2023)
- Business Inventories (January):
- +0.3% MoM (in line with expectations), December: -0.2% MoM
- NAHB Housing Market Index (March): dropped to 39 (consensus: 43, previous: 42)
Key Insight: The survey reinforced concerns about stagflation risks entering the market.
Economic calendar on March 18
8:30 AM ET:
- Housing starts (February) (consensus: 1.385M, previous: 1.366M)
- Building permits (consensus: 1.450M, previous: 1.483M)
- Import prices (February) (previous: +0.3%)
- Export prices (previous: +1.3%)
- Industrial production (February) (consensus: +0.2%, previous: +0.5%)
- Capacity utilization (consensus: 77.7%, previous: 77.8%)
Ex-oil import prices (previous: +0.1%)
Ex-agriculture export prices (previous: +1.5%)
9:15 AM ET:
Energy markets:
Brent crude: $71.40 per barrel (failed to follow WTI higher)
Oil remains under pressure amid U.S. economic slowdown fears and weaker demand outlook
Final takeaway:
The US stock market confirmed strong support levels, reinforcing a buy-the-dip strategy. It makes sense to hold long positions from key support levels remains justified. If a notable pullback occurs today or tomorrow on the daily S&P 500 chart, adding to positions could be a reasonable strategy—provided capital is available.
*यहां पर लिखा गया बाजार विश्लेषण आपकी जागरूकता बढ़ाने के लिए किया है, लेकिन व्यापार करने के लिए निर्देश देने के लिए नहीं |
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