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Risk appetite deteriorated sharply during Wednesday as fears over a global recession intensified. The immediate panic was triggered by an inversion of the US yield curve for the 10-year Treasuries dipping below 1.60% and trading below 2-year rates for the first time in over 10 years. There was a rapid slide in equity markets during the day as fears increased.
Given a lack of confidence in the global economy, AUD/USD came under renewed selling pressure with a dip below 0.6750. There was an element of resilience with AUD/USD holding above August's 10-year lows despite carnage in equity markets.
Australian dollar sentiment was boosted by the latest labour-market data with July employment increasing 41,100 compared with consensus forecasts of around 14,000. Unemployment remained at 5.2% as an increase in the work force and strong demand for jobs prevented a decline.
The Reserve Bank of Australia stated that it is carefully monitoring the labour-market data to determine potential changes to interest rates. The stronger-than-expected employment gains should provide an element of relief, although the unemployment rate is still too high to generate stronger wages growth.
The US Administration will continue to force the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. According to media sources, President Trump's attack on the Fed will intensify.
The prospect of further rate cuts by the US Fed is bullish for the Australian dollar. Donald Trump is also monitoring Wall Street very closely with a strong equity market seen as a key indicator of success and crucial for his re-election prospects. Amid his struggle for lower interest rates, the market expects further support measures such as further concessions on China over trade.
The Shanghai bourse also edged into positive territory as the PBOC added liquidity and government funds are liable to be deployed to support domestic financial markets.
*La presente analisi del mercato ha un carattere esclusivamente informativo e non rappresenta una guida per l`effettuazione di una transazione.
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