17.11.202011:57 Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD to depreciate by 20% in 2021

Surprisingly, the good news about the coronavirus vaccine is weighing on the US dollar. In general, after the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, the US dollar index lost 11%. And this month the American currency fell by 1.8%.

On Monday, it became known that the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine was successful by 94.5% in clinical trials. As a result, demand for the US dollar, the yen, and Treasury bonds fell.

Vaccine trials began on July 27, involving about 30,000 volunteers. The first interim analysis was based on 95 cases of infection. 90 cases of COVID-19 were observed in the placebo group and only five cases in the mRNA-1273 vaccine group.

Earlier, on November 9, BioNTech and Pfizer also announced the success of the COVID-19 vaccine clinical trial.

By the way, today more than 54 million people have been infected with coronavirus infection. More than 1.3 million died. The critical situation is observed in the USA, India and Brazil.

Apart from successful vaccinations, the Fed's soft monetary policy will negatively affect the US dollar. Analysts from Citigroup believe that other countries will recover faster from the crisis, and investors will move from American assets to international ones.

According to Citigroup, the US dollar has been struggling since 2001, when China joined the World Trade Organization. As a result, world trade began to develop headily. The US economy was left behind because its trade growth was much lower than the global one.

Now, if the vaccine becomes widespread and helps to restore global trade and economic expansion, the American currency will plummet by 20%, analysts say.

Experts also believe that the US dollar may depreciate by 36% against the euro within 2021.

Hedge fund rates against USD have hit their high in the past ten years. Most of the funds reported that this half of the year traders were betting on the US dollar collapse.