30.07.201901:52 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD pair starts a busy week

EUR/USD is trading near the 1,1100 mark, the trend remains downward, and the chart shows bearish signs. The relative strength index (RSI) is falling, the pair cannot consolidate even at the lowest support line - 1.1195, which is also a sign of a further fall. When a currency pair cannot restore positions on the previous support line - it has only has one direction - down. The EUR/USD pair failed to continue the rebound following Draghi's statements, and the main driving force behind the recent fall was the optimistic report on US GDP. US economic indicators have lowered expectations for significant monetary stimulus from the Fed, and lower rates will not mean the start of a new policy easing cycle.

The moderate easing of the Fed contrasts with the ECB's strategy. So far, the European regulator abstained from any action, but laid the foundation for the announcement of a significant "package of measures" at its September meeting. Trade tensions between Europe and the United States intensify after French President Emmanuel Macron signed a law on the "digital tax" on technology companies, primarily American ones. Trump responded with a threat to introduce a tariff for French wines and other European products. Meanwhile, trade negotiations between the US and China are resuming in Shanghai - for the first time since May. All this time, the parties communicated only by phone, but now resume personal summits. Any positive news on the basis of these meetings will instantly affect the EUR/USD pair, and they will not be as good for the euro as for the dollar.