13.07.202114:25 Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD: Walking on the razor's edge

Despite a staggering rise in new cases of COVID-19, the UK remains committed to lifting most of the restrictive measures on July 19.

Social distancing and the wearing of masks will no longer take legal form, instead, the government intends to replace the law with a recommendation, which is unlikely to be observed by citizens.

All businesses, including nightclubs, entertainment venues, will be able to operate at full capacity, which could seriously undermine the already precarious situation with coronavirus infection in the country.

At the moment, it is predicted that daily hospitalizations after the restrictive measures have been swept away will reach 1,000-2,000 people per day at a peak in August, and deaths from the virus can rise to 200 per day, according to data from the UK Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE).

In simple terms, the National Health Service could face disaster again, but that still does not stop the government from lifting restrictive measures, citing a successful vaccination program.

In this situation, it is worth turning on imagination: imagine that the restrictive measures have been removed, weeks, months, and the situation with covid is only getting worse, this leads not only to a collapse in the medical field but also questions the UK vaccination program.

This is a terrible scenario, as it leads to a further increase in mortality and a new wave of infection, which in turn will force the government to introduce new restrictive measures, up to a lockdown, which will scare away investors and undermine the economic recovery process.

Let's hope this is just a fantasy, and the strategy of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson will triumph over the catastrophic situation in the country.

What is happening in the market in terms of technical analysis?

The pound sterling is in a technical correction from the 1.3730/1.3750 support area, where a variable support point was found during the last trading week. On a short-term basis, price fluctuations are justified by local changes, where the correction completed its construction around the 1.3900 mark.

Analyzing the change in the quotes in the interval of one and a half months, a distinct downward cycle will be seen, where the local maximum of the medium-term trend, coupled with a long sideways movement in the period of May and early June, plays the role of a power lever.

In simple terms, sellers have enough technical signals for the subsequent formation of a downward cycle.

Expectations and prospects

Short-term price changes are considering a reduction in the volume of long positions around the 1.3900 mark, which leads to an increase in the volume of short positions in the direction of the 1.3730/1.3750 variable pivot point.

Medium-term expectations will be directly oriented towards price fluctuations in the short-term, as a price return to the 1.3730/1.3750 area increases the chances of a breakdown of the March-April bottom, and this will jeopardize the medium-term upward trend.

If the medium-term expectations coincide, the scenario of a weakening of the pound sterling to the levels of 1.3300-1.3000 may well come true.

As for the alternative scenario, there are still no specifics here, since, in order for the change of the available ticks to penetrate, the quotes must stay at least above the 1.4050 mark in the daily period.