02.09.202110:05 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trading plan for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on September 2, 2021

The market behaved as if nothing had happened even though the final data on the European business activity index in the manufacturing sector declined from 62.8 points to 61.4 points instead of 61.5 points. In other words, the market simply stood still. It is likely that this is due to the fact that the final data did not differ too much from the preliminary estimate or the market was waiting for much more significant data, which was published a little later. After all, the market did not notice the unemployment data, whose values declined from 7.8% to 7.6%. This can be skipped only if the market is waiting for something more important.

Unemployment rate (Europe):

It also ignored the final PMI data in the UK manufacturing sector due to the exact same reason. But in this case, the data turned out to be better than forecasts. The index declined from 60.4 points to 60.3 points, although the preliminary estimate showed its decline to 60.1 points.

Manufacturing PMI (UK):

As a result, only the US employment data managed to move the market from its place, but the effect was not quite as expected. Here, employment growth was expected by at least 500,000, which should have clearly encouraged investors ahead of Friday's publication of the US Department of Labor report. However, employment increased by only 374 thousand, which is also quite a lot, but noticeably less than expected. It follows from this that the content of the report may well not be as optimistic as predicted.

Therefore, the US dollar immediately began to lose its positions. At the same time, the final data on the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector increased the negative effect, as the index fell from 63.4 points to 61.1 points with a forecast of 61.2 points.

Employment Change (United States):

Today, the Euro may come under serious pressure due to the expected growth of the producer price index from 10.2% to 11.0%. Europen inflation has already sharply surged, and the rapid rise in producer prices hints at its further growth. It is clear that this will only increase investor fears about inflationary risks, which cast doubt on the recovery of the euro area economy.

Moreover, the European Central Bank flatly refuses to announce plans to tighten monetary policy, although the rise in inflation leaves no choice but to start raising interest rates. So, investors fear that the actions of the European regulator will be sudden and no one will have time to prepare for them. It is this fear that has a negative impact on the Euro currency.

Producer Price Index (Europe):

The applications for unemployment benefits also provided additional support for the US dollar. Here, the number of initial applications is expected to fall by 13 thousand, and repeated applications by 47 thousand. And although the decline in the number of applications is insignificant, the very fact of further improvement of the situation on the labor market is important. Moreover, the United States Department of Labor report will be published tomorrow, and the reduction in the number of applications for unemployment benefits right before this event is an extremely positive factor.

The number of re-claims for unemployment benefits (United States):

The EUR/USD currency pair adheres to the correction from this year's base despite its overbought level. At the same time, the downward trend from the beginning of June has not yet been broken. Thus, there is a chance to further decline in the market.

Following the correctional pattern of August 20, the GBP/USD pair reached the level of 1.3800, where stagnation occurred and, as a result, amplitude in the range of 1.3730/1.3800. In this situation, the best trading tactic is the breakdown method of a particular border of the range.