14.10.202210:00 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD: the dollar goes forward without a doubt, and the euro - with an eye on its movements

The US currency showed a powerful breakthrough after the release of impressive data on inflation in the US. Later, however, the greenback "slowed down" a bit, evaluating the results. This took advantage of the euro, which grew slightly. However, in the future, the chances of the EUR faded away, as the USD rallied again.

A new round of the greenback's upward spiral was recorded after the release of strong US inflation reports. On Thursday, October 13, the US Department of Labor released data on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September. Note that this indicator increased by 0.4% m/m, although it was expected to increase by only 0.2% m/m. At the same time, consumer prices in America soared by 8.2% in September, exceeding the forecast by 8.1%. The increase in consumer prices reflects the rising cost of housing, food and medical care, experts emphasize. At the same time, the increase in this indicator is partially offset by the fall in gasoline prices.

According to the report, the core consumer price index (Core CPI) in the US, excluding the cost of food and energy, rose by 0.6% in September. At the same time, analysts expected it to increase by 0.5% m/m. Note that the annual growth rate of Core CPI rose to 6.6%. An increase in the base CPI demonstrates an increase in the cost of housing, cars and medical care, as well as an increase in education fees.

The US Department of Labor report focuses on the spread of high inflation in all areas of the national economy. In this situation, the standard of living of Americans plunged sharply. Against this background, citizens have to use their savings and credit cards to make ends meet. At the same time, experts expect a slowdown in consumer prices in the US. However, the current situation is unlikely to affect the Federal Reserve's plans for a further increase in the key rate.

Following strong US inflation data, USD and Treasury yields surged, while US stock futures plummeted. Against this backdrop, expectations of another increase in the Fed's interest rate intensified. At the moment, the central bank is pursuing a hawkish strategy aimed at combating galloping inflation. At the same time, despite the slowdown in the US labor market, the department intends to continue to raise interest rates. At this rate, according to Commerzbank analysts, in the first quarter of 2023, the Fed rate will peak at 5%.

Against this background, the dollar is confidently leading, habitually pushing the euro away from key positions. According to DBS Bank economists, the greenback will continue its upward trend until the end of 2022, and by 2023 it will reach the level of consolidation. The dollar is supported by a long-term increase in Fed rates, the bank emphasizes. As a result, on Friday, October 14, the EUR/USD pair was trading near 0.9784. Against this background, the greenback remained calm, and the euro tried to gain a foothold in the conquered positions. At the same time, the pair remained within the current range. Earlier, Credit Suisse economists believed that after strong US inflation data, the EUR/USD pair would test the 0.9500 mark, but this did not happen.

According to analysts' estimates, the current inflation in the US has once again "upturned the markets", threatening a new wave of tightening of the Fed's rhetoric. In the current situation, traders and investors expect the next rate hikes, as high inflationary inflation rates do not give a respite to the Fed. As a result, the central bank is forced to be "in an aggressive tightening mode," experts emphasize. According to analysts at Oxford Economics, by the end of 2022, the Fed will raise rates "by at least 125 bps".

Most analysts (98%) are convinced that the central bank will raise the rate by 75 bps in November, up to 3.75-4% per annum. Recall that such an increase in rates could be the sixth in a row. Earlier, after three meetings of the Fed, it was raised by an additional 75 bps. At the same time, many investors are confident that core inflation will soon fall, and the Fed will soften its rhetoric a bit. However, this is unlikely, experts say.

Against this background, the US currency is stabilizing, reacting to a short-term surge in risk sentiment, recorded at the end of the week. At the same time, large hedge funds still bet on the further growth of the USD. Geopolitical turmoil and fears of an economic downturn have further strengthened the greenback, prompting investors to abandon European assets. Many of them still consider the dollar the safest asset to protect their savings.

According to analysts at Citigroup Global Markets Inc, the US currency will continue to strengthen until the global economic slowdown stops. If its growth accelerates, the dollar will give up its positions, experts are certain. However, now this is far away, and the benefits of owning USD outweigh the current risks, Citigroup notes.