06.04.202319:00 Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD. Analysis for April 6. The market has forgotten about the British economy

The wave markup for the pound/dollar pair appears complex and has undergone minor adjustments. Since the current upward wave's peak has surpassed the previous downward wave b, the entire segment of the downward trend consisting of waves a-b-c can be considered complete. Although there is a slight similarity to the trend area for the same period in the performance of the euro currency, it should be noted that both pairs have formed three-wave downward wave sets. If this assumption is accurate, the development of an upward trend section for the pound has begun. Since I can only identify one wave beginning on March 8, there is every reason to believe the British pound rise will be long and strong. It is quite difficult to predict how the euro will perform simultaneously. I believe both pairs should generate identical wave patterns, but there have recently been issues with this. According to the British pound, wave b could commence soon, after which the increase in quotes should resume with targets located up to thirty figures. Unless wave c appears identical to a series of downward waves. The current news context is ambiguous, and I would not bet solely on the strong development of the British economy.

The exchange rate of the pound/dollar pair on Thursday shows a low amplitude of movement. The market is already anticipating Friday's statistics from the United States, which will be the most significant of the week. Recently, the US dollar has consistently weakened against other currencies, and analysts continue to discuss stagflation, declining economic growth, and other issues. It contributed to the negative scenarios and the banking crisis in the United States, which forced the Federal Reserve to adopt emergency actions. However, even if we exclude the above factors, the Fed is approaching the point at which it will cease tightening its monetary policy. And the interest rate will decrease six to nine months from now. This is an extremely negative outlook for the US dollar. If the dollar has been actively depreciating over the past three quarters, the Fed's rate cut may further reduce its demand.

Nonetheless, the market simultaneously disregards the status of the British economy. If the US economy keeps growing, the British economy will stagnate for a long time. The Bank of England will not be able to increase the rate permanently because inflation in the United Kingdom is unchanged. It will continue to constrict for some time, but by the end of the year, a situation will have developed that will necessitate loosening the policy. This week, Silvana Tenreyro of the Bank of England stated that the rate would likely need to be reduced earlier than anticipated. Consequently, the British pound is also in the "risk zone," and the British economy runs the risk of being plagued by high inflation for years to come.

Conclusions in general

The wave pattern of the pound/dollar indicates the conclusion of a segment of a downward trend. Currently, the wave markup is ambiguous, so you should purchase cautiously if your targets exceed 25 figures. Now that formation of wave b can also commence, I do not see a news background that would support the British pound in the long term. If you trade, it should be for-profit and done properly.

The picture resembles the euro/dollar pair on a higher wave scale, but there are still differences. Currently, the upward correction section of the trend is complete. If this assumption is accurate, then we are still awaiting the continuation of the formation of a five-wave downward section with the possibility of a decline between 14 and 16 figures.