29.06.202310:18 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Fed reiterates likely rate hikes this year

Markets no longer fear hearing the aggressive rhetoric of the Federal Reserve as Jerome Powell kept on reminding investors the central bank's plan to raise rates two more times this year if necessary.

Speaking at a gathering of central bank leaders in Portugal on Wednesday, Powell reiterated the possibility of further rate hikes. However, his speech contained various "ifs", which kept stock markets from experiencing a new decline. The NASDAQ index even managed to close in positive territory.

Today, futures on major US stock indices shrugged off the negativity, trading in the green zone. Europe also responded with a positive start to the trading session.

All this could be because the market already took into account the Fed's plan to raise interest rates. However, this also means that any deviation from the plan will lead to opposite reactions, such as an increase in demand for stocks, government bonds, and a weakening of dollar

Starting from this spring, the ICE dollar index gradually but steadily entered a very narrow price range that can be broken through with an energetic upward or downward movement. However, this depends on the Fed's actual actions, not just talks. If promises to raise rates remain just promises, the index will eventually fall below 101.00, and perhaps go under 100.00. The actions of other global central banks can also play an important role, as there remains a very high risk of further rate hikes by the Bank of England and the ECB, since inflation in the UK and the eurozone continue to be at high levels.

Forecasts for today:

EUR/USD

The pair trades at 1.0915, and a sustained move above it could lead to a new attempt to reach 1.1000.

AUD/USD

The pair trades under 0.6635, indicating an attempt at a local upward reversal. Breaking above this level could result in a limited growth towards 0.6700.