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On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair continued its downward movement after consolidating below the 1.0714 level towards the next corrective level at 23.6% (1.0644). A rebound in quotes from this level will allow us to count on a reversal in favor of the euro and some growth towards 1.0714. The consolidation of quotes below 1.0644 increases the chances of further decline towards the next level at 1.0524.
The wave situation continues to remain complex. In recent weeks, we have mainly observed horizontal movement. As a result, waves alternate without forming clear trends. On Friday, against the background of American reports, we saw a strong upward wave that broke the two previous peaks. However, this does not necessarily mean that the rise will continue in the future. This week, we can see much more modest trader activity and a descending microtrend.
On Tuesday, the background information was limited to reports on industrial production in Germany. The report was weak, but it's time to forget about it. Today, Powell's speech may shift the dollar both up and down. In recent weeks and months, the FOMC has increasingly indicated its readiness to keep the interest rate at its peak for as long as necessary. Although previously the wording was: "We will raise the rate as much as necessary." Now, the Fed is not ready to raise the rate, and the market may interpret such messages as "dovish." There have been no new inflation reports since Powell's last speech, so I doubt that his rhetoric will change compared to the previous week. I believe it will remain neutral with a slight "dovish" tint. Against the backdrop of Powell's statements, the dollar may decline slightly.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair made a reversal in favor of the euro and a new consolidation above the corrective level of 100.0% (1.0639). However, the "bearish" divergence in the CCI indicator worked in favor of the US currency and started to decline towards the 1.0639 level. The closing of the pair's rate below this level will allow us to expect further decline towards the next Fibonacci level at 127.2% (1.0466). There are no impending divergences at the moment.
Commitments of Traders (COT) report:
In the last reporting week, speculators closed 4735 long contracts and 4871 short contracts. The sentiment of major traders remains "bullish" but has noticeably weakened in recent weeks and months. The total number of long contracts held by speculators is now 210,000, and short contracts are 125,000. The difference is now less than double, although a few months ago, the gap was threefold. I think the situation will continue to change in favor of the bears. Bulls have dominated the market for too long, and now they need a strong news background to start a new "bullish" trend. There is no such background at the moment. Professional traders may continue to close their long positions in the near future. I believe that the current numbers allow for further depreciation of the euro in the coming months.
News Calendar for the US and the European Union:
European Union - German Consumer Price Index (07:00 UTC).
European Union - Retail Sales (10:00 UTC).
US - Speech by the Fed Chairman, Mr. Powell (14:15 UTC).
On November 8th, the economic events calendar contains three entries, with Powell's speech standing out. The impact of the news background on traders' sentiment on Wednesday could be quite strong.
Forecast for EUR/USD and trader advice:
Purchasing the pair was possible on a rebound on the hourly chart from the 1.0524 level, with targets at 1.0644 and 1.0714. Both targets have been reached. I do not recommend considering new purchases at the moment. I advised selling when consolidating below the 1.0714 level, with a target at 1.0644 and lower. These transactions can remain open.
*La presente analisi del mercato ha un carattere esclusivamente informativo e non rappresenta una guida per l`effettuazione di una transazione.
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