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Today, intraday volatility will depend on inflation data in the eurozone and on statistics on the American labor market, which needs to be emphasized. It is very important to find out what the dynamics of employment growth in the US from ADP will be in March of this year. A decline in the indicator much more than in the consensus would lead to a fall in the US dollar and a rise in the pound and the Japanese yen. Poor performance in the ISM Services PMI will also have a negative impact on the US dollar. However, the speeches of FOMC members, led by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, will have a much greater impact on the market. His dovish tone and willingness to cut interest rates will further hurt dollar positions.
If the data coincides with analysts' forecasts, then it is better to act based on the Mean Reversion strategy. If the data turns out to be much higher or lower than expectations, it is best to use the Momentum strategy.
Momentum strategy (for breakout):
For EUR/USD
Buying during a breakout of the level of 1.0790 could lead to an increase in the euro to the area of 1.0826 and 1.0863.
Selling during a breakout of the level of 1.0758 could lead to a fall of the euro to the area of 1.0726 and 1.0696.
For GBP/USD
Buying during a breakout of the level of 1.2601 could lead to an increase in the pound to the area of 1.2639 and 1.2672.
Selling during a breakout at 1.2567 could lead to a fall in the pound to the area of 1.2538 and 1.2507.
For USD/JPY
Long positions opened during a breakout of the level of 151.94 could lead to an increase in the US dollar to the area of 152.39 and 152.83.
Short positions opened during a breakout of the level of 151.52 could lead to a sell-off of the US dollar in the area of 151.09 and 150.70.
Mean Reversion strategy (reversal of a trajectory)
For EUR/USD
I will look for sell positions after an unsuccessful climb beyond 1.0786 during the return below this level. I will look for buy positions after an unsuccessful decline beyond 1.0758 during the return to this level.
For GBP/USD
I will look for sell positions after an unsuccessful climb beyond 1.2588 during the return below this level. I will look for buy positions after an unsuccessful drop beyond 1.2559 during the return to this level.
For AUD/USD
I will look for sell positions after an unsuccessful rise beyond 0.6535 during the return below this level. I will look for buy positions after an unsuccessful drop beyond 0.6503 during the return to this level.
For USD/CAD
I will look for sell positions after an unsuccessful rise beyond 1.3586 during the return below this level. I will look for buy positions after an unsuccessful decline beyond 1.3550 during the return to this level.
*La presente analisi del mercato ha un carattere esclusivamente informativo e non rappresenta una guida per l`effettuazione di una transazione.
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