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Trade analysis and tips for trading the Japanese yen
The test of the price at 156.16 came at a time when the MACD had just started moving down from the zero mark, confirming the scenario for selling the dollar. As a result, the pair dropped to around 155.76, allowing it to pull about 40 points from the market. The nervousness observed in the USD/JPY pair ahead of the important inflation data in the US is evident. Traders are taking profits after another bull market and are counting on entering at more attractive prices, which can be obtained if the news on inflation growth in the US disappoints those who focus on further firmness from the Federal Reserve. If the numbers again indicate an increase in price pressure, the USD/JPY growth will likely continue with renewed vigor. As for the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on the realization of Scenario #1 without even paying attention to the MACD indicator readings, as I expect major market movements.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY when the entry point reaches around 156.07 (green line on the chart), with a target of rising to 156.65 (thicker green line). At around 156.65, I will exit the purchases and open sales in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 points in the opposite direction from the level). Counting on the pair's growth today can only be after a sharp inflationary jump in the US. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 155.72 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to a reverse market turnaround upwards. Expect growth towards the opposite levels of 156.07 and 156.65.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY after updating the level of 155.72 (red line on the chart), leading to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 155.11, where I will exit sales and immediately open purchases in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return in case of news of price declines in the US in April this year. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 156.07 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the upside potential of the pair and lead to a reverse market turnaround downwards. Expect a decline towards the opposite levels of 155.72 and 155.11.
What's on the chart:
Thin green line – entry price, at which the trading instrument can be bought.
Thick green line – expected price where you can set Take Profit or independently fix profits, as further growth beyond this level is unlikely.
Thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold.
Thick red line – expected price where you can set Take Profit or independently fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.
Important. Beginner traders in the forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. You must place stop orders to avoid losing your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade with large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
*La presente analisi del mercato ha un carattere esclusivamente informativo e non rappresenta una guida per l`effettuazione di una transazione.
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