06.06.202407:48 Forex Analysis & Reviews: How to trade the EUR/USD currency pair on June 6th? Simple tips and deal analysis for beginners

Trade Analysis on Tuesday:

1H Chart of EUR/USD Pair

The EUR/USD currency pair showed upward movement again on Wednesday. Specifically, movements throughout the day were mixed, but the European currency had risen again by the end. Thus, novice traders could see that even with positive information from the US, the market situation doesn't change—the European currency continues to rise. Recall that a rather strong ISM Services PMI was released in the US yesterday, exceeding the forecast by several points. The dollar has recently appreciated by about 20 points but has quietly resumed its decline. Similarly, on Monday, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI being weaker than expected, the dollar fell for six hours and lost more than 60 points. Therefore, as before, the market responds with double or triple the effort to negative data for the dollar while ignoring positive data.

5M Chart of EUR/USD Pair

In the 5-minute timeframe on Wednesday, a fairly good sell signal was formed in the form of a price rebound from the 1.0888-1.0896 area, after which the price dropped to the 1.0856 level. Another rebound followed from this level, and the price returned to the 1.0888-1.0896 area at night. These signals could have been traded, but the second one was formed too late. The first signal also likely yielded little profit due to low volatility, with the price dropping 20 points.

How to Trade on Wednesday:

On the hourly timeframe, the pair maintains an upward correction. The decline of the European currency should resume in the medium term, as the global trend remains bearish. However, the market continues to avoid buying the dollar for unknown reasons and can't even exit the ascending channel. The pair can't even properly correct downward. Only a consolidation below the ascending channel will give hope for forming a new downward trend.

On Thursday, novice traders can expect a new rise in the European currency. The ECB is 90% likely to cut rates today, but as we remember, the market does not react to positive data for the dollar and negative data for the euro.

On the 5-minute timeframe, consider the levels 1.0483, 1.0526, 1.0568, 1.0611, 1.0678, 1.0726-1.0733, 1.0797-1.0804, 1.0838-1.0856, 1.0888-1.0896, 1.0940, 1.0971-1.0981. The Eurozone will publish a retail sales report on Thursday, and the ECB meeting and Christine Lagarde's speech will occur. In the US, only secondary events are scheduled.

Main Trading System Rules:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form (rebound or level break). The less time it takes, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades are opened near any level due to false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair can form many false signals or none at all. In any case, stopping trading at the first signs of a flat is better.
4. Trading deals are opened between the start of the European session and the middle of the American session, after which all trades should be closed manually.
5. On the hourly timeframe, MACD indicator signals should be traded when they have good volatility and a trend confirmed by a trend line or trend channel.
6. If two levels are very close together (5 to 20 points apart), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
7. After moving 15 points in the right direction, a Stop Loss should be set to breakeven.

Chart Elements:

• Support and resistance levels: targets for opening buy or sell trades. Take Profit levels can be placed near them.
• Red lines: channels or trend lines indicating the current trend and the preferred trading direction.
• MACD (14,22,3) indicator: histogram and signal line—an auxiliary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (always listed in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, trade with maximum caution during their release or exit the market to avoid a sharp price reversal against the preceding movement.

For beginners trading in the forex market, it is important to remember that only some trades will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and money management are the keys to success in trading over the long term.