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Despite the fact that the price of gold is holding above $2,300 after the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on interest rates, the growth potential seems limited.
Politicians actually predicted only one interest rate cut in 2024, which, in turn, is seen as a key factor that continues to act as a headwind for the non-profitable yellow metal. In addition, the generally positive tone of risk and the moderate growth of the US dollar contribute to limiting the growth of commodity prices.
Plus, markets still estimate a high probability of a September rate cut amid signs of easing inflationary pressures in the United States.
This, in turn, led to a drop in US bond yields to the lowest level seen in April. Consequently, such a drop in yields weakens the dollar, which means it can restrain the appreciation of the US dollar and provide some support to the commodity denominated in US dollars.
Along with the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and renewed political uncertainty in Europe, bears are required to be cautious before extending the recent pullback from the historical high of $2,450 in the XAU/USD pair.
From a technical point of view, the price deviation from the 50-day simple moving average SMA after the FOMC decision, as well as negative oscillators on the daily chart, favor bears. However, the inability to find approval below the $2,300 mark requires some caution for them. Therefore, before preparing for further losses, it would be wise to wait for subsequent sales below the $2,285 level. Then gold can accelerate the fall to the $2,220 area and to the round level of $2,200 dollars with some obstacle in the way.
On the other hand, any significant recovery will meet resistance around $2,325. It is followed by a 50-day SMA, which is currently pegged to the $2,345 region and the $2,360-2,362 supply zone. Steady growth outside the supply zone will allow the price to retest the maximum fluctuations of last week in the area of $2,388 and aim for the $2,400 mark. Some continuation will negate any negative scenario in the short term, allowing the XAU/USD pair to challenge the historical maximum in the area of $2,450 reached in May.
*La presente analisi del mercato ha un carattere esclusivamente informativo e non rappresenta una guida per l`effettuazione di una transazione.
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