04.07.202415:38 Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/JPY: Simple trading tips for beginner traders on July 4th (US session)

Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

Testing the price at 161.34 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator had moved significantly downward from the zero mark, which, despite yesterday's bearish market, clearly limited the pair's further downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell, and that was a mistake. Considering that the second half of the day may be quite calm, the absence of major market participants due to the US holiday could push USD/JPY into a slight upward correction – especially after the failed attempt to break yesterday's low. I will stick to trading within the sideways channel. As for the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on Scenario 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario 1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY at the entry point around 161.34 (green line on the chart), with the target of rising to 161.72 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 161.72, I will exit purchases and open sales in the opposite direction (targeting a 30-35 point movement in the opposite direction from the level). One can expect the pair to rise today only after active buying pressure near yesterday's low. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and that it is just starting its upward movement.

Scenario 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 160.95 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth to the opposite levels of 161.34 and 161.72 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario 1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY after the level of 160.95 (red line on the chart) is updated, which will lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 160.63, where I will exit sales and immediately open purchases in the opposite direction (targeting a 20-25 point movement in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return in case of a failed attempt to correct above the price of 161.34. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and that it is just starting its downward movement.

Scenario 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 161.34 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline to the opposite levels of 160.95 and 160.63 can be expected.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin green line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick green line: Target price for placing Take Profit or manually fixing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick red line: Target price for placing Take Profit or manually fixing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner forex traders should make market entry decisions very cautiously. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.