07.11.202408:56 Forex Analysis & Reviews: How to Trade the EUR/USD Pair on November 7? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Wednesday's Trades:

1H Chart of EUR/USD Pair

The EUR/USD currency pair plummeted by nearly 250 pips on Wednesday. Most of the downward movement occurred overnight, triggered by the U.S. presidential elections. We believe such movements should not be actively traded as the market was overly emotional. After a 250-pip drop, the pair could just as quickly have rebounded by the same amount since there were no objective reasons for the dollar's rise following Donald Trump's victory.

Perhaps fiscal policy will indeed be inflationary under Trump, forcing the Federal Reserve to maintain higher interest rates than it would under Harris. However, if this happens, it would only manifest over the course of a year or two—and even then, it is not guaranteed.

Today, the market's focus will shift to the Fed's meeting. If the Fed adopts a dovish stance or cuts rates by 0.5%, the dollar could easily lose all its gains on Wednesday.

5M Chart of EUR/USD Pair

Numerous signals were generated in Wednesday's 5-minute time frame, but the most significant movement occurred during the Asian trading session. The pair traded with volatility and emotion for the rest of the day, ignoring all levels and zones. We believe that after a 200-pip drop overnight, it was unwise to attempt to chase the "departing train" during the day.

How to Trade on Thursday:

On the hourly time frame, the EUR/USD pair may begin a new correction after a month-long decline, as yesterday's drop had little to do with "logical" or systematic market behavior. However, we doubt the correction will be strong, as consistent news supporting the euro would be required for that—and even then, such news would not always help, given the market's current focus on buying the dollar.

For Thursday, our primary advice to beginners is to exercise caution. Price swings may continue, so trading could be attempted at any key level. However, volatility may be high again, and movements could remain emotional.

On the 5-minute time frame, consider the following trading levels: 1.0678, 1.0726-1.0733, 1.0797-1.0804, 1.0845-1.0851, 1.0888-1.0896, 1.0940-1.0951, 1.1011, 1.1048, 1.1091, 1.1132-1.1140. For Thursday, no significant events are scheduled in the Eurozone. In the U.S., the results of the Fed meeting will be announced, followed by Jerome Powell's press conference in the evening.

Basic Trading System Rules:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form (whether a bounce or breakthrough of a level). The quicker the formation, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades have been made near a level due to false signals, any further signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, a pair can generate many false signals or none at all. In any case, it's best to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading occurs between the start of the European and middle of the US sessions, after which all trades should be manually closed.
5. On the hourly time frame, it's recommended to trade MACD indicator signals only when there is good volatility and a trendline or trend channel confirms a trend.
6. If two levels are too close together (5 to 20 pips apart), they should be treated as support or resistance areas.
7. After the price moves 15 pips in the intended direction, set the Stop Loss to breakeven.

What's on the Charts:

Support and Resistance Levels: Levels that serve as targets for opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed around these areas.

Red Lines: Channels or trend lines that indicate the current trend and the preferred trading direction.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): Histogram and signal line—an auxiliary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Major speeches and reports (always found in the news calendar) can significantly impact currency pair movements. Therefore, it's advised to trade cautiously or exit the market during their release to avoid sharp price reversals against prior movements.

Beginners trading on the forex market should remember that not every trade will be profitable. A clear strategy and money management are the keys to success in long-term trading.