04.12.202408:42 Forex Analysis & Reviews: How to Trade the EUR/USD Pair on December 4? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Tuesday's Trades

1H Chart of EUR/USD

On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair continued trading within a horizontal channel. The flat movement might not have been apparent a few days ago, but now it is quite evident. Many traders are expecting trending moves and strong volatility this week, but it's worth noting that significant data don't guarantee active trading or impactful report outcomes. The first two days of the week highlighted two things. The first one is that the market is not inclined to buy the euro, which is logical. The second is that the market is correcting, but sideways. Interestingly, the report was ignored despite a good opportunity for the dollar to appreciate—thanks to the JOLTs job openings report in the U.S., which exceeded forecasts. The market remains flat for now, but this flat range could transition into a new downtrend at any moment.

5M Chart of EUR/USD

Two sell signals were formed on Tuesday on the 5-minute chart, but the low volatility during the day hindered beginners from profiting from these signals. In the first instance, the price moved 15 pips downward, allowing the trade to close at breakeven via Stop Loss. In the second instance, the signal came too late in the day. Even if traders acted on it, they likely avoided losses, and today's price movement may continue to fall.

Trading Strategy for Wednesday:

On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair is still attempting to correct, but the euro is only capable of small or slow upward movements. In fact, for the past couple of weeks, the pair has been moving within a horizontal channel between 1.0451 and 1.0596. Even after two months of declines, there's no rush to buy the euro.

On Wednesday, we believe that a continuation of the decline is possible. However, movements are typically highly random in a flat range, which traders should remember.

On the 5-minute TF, we should consider the levels of 1.0269-1.0277, 1.0334-1.0359, 1.0433-1.0451, 1.0526, 1.0596, 1.0678, 1.0726-1.0733, 1.0797-1.0804, 1.0845-1.0851, 1.0888-1.0896. The day features significant events, including two speeches by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, and the release of the important ISM Services PMI in the U.S. Additionally, there will be several minor reports. Increased volatility can be expected, but the presence of the horizontal channel remains a challenge for consistent trend trading.

Core Trading System Rules:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important Events and Reports: Found in the economic calendar, these can heavily influence price movements. Exercise caution or exit the market during their release to avoid sharp reversals.

Forex trading beginners should remember that not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing proper money management are essential for long-term trading success.