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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Thursday made another rebound from the resistance zone of 1.2788–1.2801, reversed in favor of the US dollar, and consolidated below the 1.2709–1.2734 level. This led to a decline to the support zone of 1.2611–1.2620. A rebound from this zone could trigger a reversal in favor of the pound and a slight upward movement. However, I doubt that this will be a strong rally. A consolidation below the 1.2611–1.2620 level will increase the likelihood of further pound depreciation, which seems more plausible.
The wave structure is straightforward. The last upward wave breached the peak of the previous wave, while the new downward wave has yet to break the previous low. Formally, the bullish trend remains intact. However, I believe that this trend is weak and could already be over. For a new bearish trend to emerge, the pair needs to close below the 1.2611–1.2620 zone.
On Thursday, the information background was intriguing but not favorable for the pound. Ironically, the pound displayed active movements throughout the day, dropping by almost 120 points. The decline continued into Friday morning, reaching the 1.2620 level. This breakout below the horizontal corridor, where the pair had been trading for nearly a week, signals the start of a new bearish trend, especially as the breakout occurred at the lower boundary.
This morning, UK GDP and industrial production reports were released. Any hopes for a recovery after Thursday's poor performance faded with these reports. The GDP contracted by 0.1%, and industrial production fell by 0.6%, both missing expectations for growth. This disappointment dragged the pound further down. While a slight upward correction may follow, I believe the decline will persist until year-end.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the US dollar, consolidating below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.2728 and declining to the 1.2620 level. This level corresponds to the key support on the hourly chart and could trigger a rebound. However, the overall trend on the 4-hour chart remains bearish, supporting expectations of a further decline toward 1.2432.
The sentiment among Non-commercial traders has become less bullish. Long positions decreased by 403, while short positions increased by 1,905. Bulls still hold the advantage, but it is rapidly diminishing. The gap between long and short positions is now just 19,000 (98,000 vs. 79,000).
Over the past three months, long positions have dropped from 160,000 to 98,000, while short positions have risen from 52,000 to 79,000. This trend suggests that institutional players are increasingly shifting toward bearish positions, as all potential bullish drivers for the pound have already been priced in. Graphical analysis also supports further pound depreciation.
These reports have already been released, leaving no impactful data for the remainder of the day. As such, the informational background is unlikely to influence market sentiment further.
*La presente analisi del mercato ha un carattere esclusivamente informativo e non rappresenta una guida per l`effettuazione di una transazione.
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