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Analysis of Trades and Advice for Trading the Euro
The test of the 1.0289 level in the first half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator had significantly moved above the zero mark, limiting the pair's upward potential. In a bearish market, I decided not to buy euros, which turned out to be the right decision.
Sellers failed to make an impact, so in the second half of the day, the chances of a continued euro correction are relatively high. Today's ISM Manufacturing Index data could significantly influence the markets, as it serves as a crucial indicator of the US industrial sector's health. The index is expected to remain in contraction territory, potentially increasing concerns about economic slowdown. However, if the figure exceeds expectations, it could boost investor optimism and strengthen the dollar.
Additionally, a speech by FOMC member Thomas Barkin will attract market attention. His comments could provide early hints on the Federal Reserve's future policy moves, particularly regarding inflation and the pace of monetary easing. Known for his cautious tone, Barkin may emphasize the need for flexibility in current conditions. Traders will look for any signals about the possibility of accelerating rate cuts, which would be negative for the dollar and favorable for risk assets.
Regarding intraday strategy, I will focus on implementing Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.
Scenario #1:Today, I plan to buy euros at 1.0304 (green line on the chart) with a target of 1.0345. At 1.0345, I plan to exit the market and sell euros in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30-35 points from the entry point. A continuation of the morning's upward trend may support euro growth today.Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.
Scenario #2:I also plan to buy euros today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.0277 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. Growth to the opposite levels of 1.0304 and 1.0345 can be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1:I plan to sell euros after reaching the 1.0277 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.0244, where I plan to exit the market and buy in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 20-25 points. Downward pressure on the pair could resume following strong US statistics.Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.
Scenario #2:I also plan to sell euros today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.0304 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline to the opposite levels of 1.0277 and 1.0244 can be expected.
Important: Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making market entry decisions. Before the release of significant fundamental reports, it's best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you neglect risk management and trade with large volumes.
Always remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one outlined above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market situations are a losing strategy for intraday traders.
*La presente analisi del mercato ha un carattere esclusivamente informativo e non rappresenta una guida per l`effettuazione di una transazione.
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