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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair failed to either extend its upward movement or initiate a new decline on Tuesday. The level of 1.2191 was largely ignored by traders and continues to be overlooked. No trading signals are likely to be found around this level. The bearish trend remains intact, and we await further developments.
The wave structure leaves no questions unanswered. The last completed upward wave failed to break the previous high, while the current downward wave has already broken the previous low. Thus, the formation of a bearish trend continues without any doubt. For this trend to reverse, the pound needs to rise to at least 1.2569 and close confidently above it. This scenario appears unlikely in the near term.
On Tuesday, there was no significant news from the UK, while the US only released the Producer Price Index (PPI), which had a limited impact on trader sentiment. However, Wednesday morning brought a surprising inflation report from the UK. Over the past six months, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey had frequently indicated expectations of rising inflation, which justified the central bank's reluctance to cut interest rates. However, December's Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell from 2.6% to 2.5%, and the core CPI dropped from 3.5% to 3.2% year-over-year.
This unexpected outcome left traders puzzled. While the immediate market reaction was neutral, I believe this report provides grounds for further declines in the pound. With inflation decreasing, the Bank of England might lower interest rates once or even multiple times in early 2025. This development gives bearish traders new reasons to press their advantage. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to ease monetary policy in Q1 2025.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair rebounded from the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.2565, closed below the 100.0% Fibonacci level at 1.2299, and continues to decline toward the 127.2% Fibonacci level at 1.1993. The downward trend channel underscores the bears' dominance, which they seem unwilling to relinquish anytime soon. Only a close above the channel would suggest a strong potential rally for the pound. Meanwhile, a bearish divergence on the CCI indicator warns of a possible resumption of the decline.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report
The sentiment among "Non-commercial" traders has barely changed over the last reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 1,644, while short positions rose by just 132. Bulls still have the upper hand, but their advantage continues to erode. The gap between long and short positions now stands at a mere 21,000: 86,000 versus 65,000.
In my view, the pound remains poised for further declines, as COT reports indicate strengthening bearish positions nearly every week. Over the past three months, long positions have dropped from 160,000 to 86,000, while short positions have increased from 52,000 to 65,000. Professional traders are likely to continue reducing longs or increasing shorts, as all potential bullish factors for the pound have already been priced in. Technical analysis also supports further declines for the pound.
News Calendar for the UK and the US:
On Wednesday, the economic calendar features two significant events that could have a substantial impact on both the pound and the dollar. Expect strong market reactions to this news.
Forecast and Trading Recommendations for GBP/USD:
Sales of the pair are possible today on a rebound from the hourly chart level of 1.2303, with targets at 1.2191 and 1.2036. The decline could resume without a rise to 1.2303, but I advise against looking for signals around the 1.2191 level. I do not plan to consider long positions today.
Fibonacci retracement levels:
*La presente analisi del mercato ha un carattere esclusivamente informativo e non rappresenta una guida per l`effettuazione di una transazione.
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