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The GBP/USD currency pair continued its decline on Thursday. Similar to the euro, the downward trend effectively began on Wednesday evening and persisted through Thursday. However, unlike the euro, the pound sterling did not manage to consolidate above the moving average. This situation provides no justification for buying the pound or expecting significant growth, even on a local level.
As discussed earlier, the key reports released this week suggest an upward movement for the dollar. Consider the following: inflation in the UK has slowed, which indicates that the Bank of England may cut rates more sharply and quickly than initially planned, possibly in four phases of 0.25% each. This is already twice the anticipated easing from the Federal Reserve. Conversely, inflation in the US has increased. In just a few days, actions taken by Trump could further accelerate inflation globally. This implies that the Fed may ease monetary policy at a slower pace than previously anticipated. Currently, only two quarter-point rate hikes were planned for 2025. Therefore, the actual outcome could be one hike, or possibly none at all.
What do we observe in the current balance of factors? In any case, the Bank of England is likely to ease policy more than the Fed. Moreover, the market has already anticipated the Fed's policy easing. Not only has this been factored in ahead of time, but it has also done so with a significant margin, which has a likelihood of about 80% of not materializing. This combination of factors is sufficient for the pound to continue its decline while the dollar rises. Additionally, we must consider the frequent disappointments in macroeconomic data from the UK, a 16-year downtrend, and a 3-month downtrend. What conclusions can we draw from this? It becomes clear that the pound is likely to continue its downward trajectory.
Speaking of macroeconomic data, yesterday the UK released reports on industrial production and GDP, which we initially deemed "not particularly significant." However, even these "less important reports" failed to provide any support for the pound. The GDP grew by just 0.1% on a monthly basis in November and by 1% on an annualized basis, falling short of expectations. Meanwhile, industrial production declined by 0.4%, contrary to forecasts that predicted a gain of 0.1%. Given these results, what potential for growth does the British pound truly have?
The situation for the British pound is quite bleak from a technical standpoint. As previously mentioned, nearly all technical indicators and charts indicate a downtrend, including the most basic ones. The only exception is the CCI indicator, which frequently enters the oversold territory and shows bullish divergences. However, it's important to note that in a downtrend—especially a strong one like the current trend—these signals merely indicate potential corrections, not a reversal of the trend. Although the pound does experience short-term corrections, it predominantly continues to decline, consistent with our forecasts. We still anticipate the pound to be around the 1.1800 level.
The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last five trading days is 116 pips, which is considered "high" for this currency pair. On Friday, January 17, we expect the pair to fluctuate within the range of 1.2126 to 1.2358. The higher linear regression channel is currently directed downward, indicating a persistent bearish trend. The CCI indicator has once again entered the oversold zone; however, in a downtrend, any oversold condition typically signals only a correction. The latest bullish divergence observed on the CCI suggests a potential correction may occur.
Nearest Support Levels:
Nearest Resistance Levels:
The GBP/USD pair continues to maintain its downward trend. Long positions are not advisable, as we believe that all potential factors supporting the pound have already been fully priced in, with no new drivers for growth emerging. If we base trading decisions purely on technical indicators, long positions could be considered with targets set at 1.2329 and 1.2358, provided that the price consolidates above the moving average. Conversely, short positions remain more relevant, with targets set at 1.2146 and 1.2126.
Linear Regression Channels help determine the current trend. If both channels are aligned, it indicates a strong trend.
Moving Average Line (settings: 20,0, smoothed) defines the short-term trend and guides the trading direction.
Murray Levels act as target levels for movements and corrections.
Volatility Levels (red lines) represent the likely price range for the pair over the next 24 hours based on current volatility readings.
CCI Indicator: If it enters the oversold region (below -250) or overbought region (above +250), it signals an impending trend reversal in the opposite direction.
*La presente analisi del mercato ha un carattere esclusivamente informativo e non rappresenta una guida per l`effettuazione di una transazione.
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