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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair reversed in favor of the pound on Tuesday and rose nearly to the resistance zone of 1.2363–1.2370. However, the pair fell short of testing this zone by just a few points. At the time of writing, the pair has reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar. Thus, I expect a decline toward the 1.2191 level today. While this level is not critical for traders, the pair might head in its direction given the lack of significant events on the calendar. For now, I believe the pair is more likely to fall further.
The wave pattern remains clear. The last completed downward wave broke below the low of the previous wave, while the latest upward wave failed to approach the last peak. Thus, the formation of a bearish trend is continuing, leaving no doubts about its persistence. For this trend to reverse, the pound would need to rise to at least 1.2569 and close confidently above it. Such a development is unlikely in the near term.
On Tuesday, while the euro continued its days-long upward trend, the pound made only weak attempts to improve its position. I see no significant reasons for the euro's growth and even fewer for the pound's. Consequently, bullish traders remain on the sidelines, waiting for better opportunities, as economic data from the UK continues to justify their caution. Just yesterday, another report from the UK indicated a rise in unemployment from 4.3% to 4.4%. While two other reports were more optimistic, traders are already anticipating a rate cut by the Bank of England at the next meeting. In contrast, no such expectations exist for the Federal Reserve. This divergence in monetary policy could further fuel bearish ambitions. Below the resistance zone of 1.2363–1.2370, bears may resume their offensive at any time. This applies to the euro as well, as it is hard to imagine the euro and the pound moving in opposite directions.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair may continue to rise within a downward trend channel. However, the graphical pattern on the hourly chart suggests a likely bearish advance in the near term. I recommend focusing more on the hourly chart at this time. No impending divergences are observed in any indicators today.
The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" category of traders became significantly more bearish over the last reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators decreased by 786, while short positions increased by 13,282. Bulls have lost all market advantage—a process that has unfolded over several months. Currently, there is no gap between the number of long and short positions: 80,000 each.
In my opinion, the pound retains prospects for further decline, as COT reports consistently indicate strengthening bearish positions almost every week. Over the past three months, the number of long positions has fallen from 161,000 to 80,000, while short positions have risen from 67,000 to 80,000. I believe professional traders will continue reducing long positions or increasing shorts over time, as all potential factors supporting the pound have already been priced in. Graphical analysis also supports further declines.
Wednesday's economic calendar contains no noteworthy events. The impact of news on trader sentiment for the remainder of the day will be negligible.
Fibonacci levels are plotted from 1.3000–1.3432 on the hourly chart and from 1.2299–1.3432 on the 4-hour chart.
*La presente analisi del mercato ha un carattere esclusivamente informativo e non rappresenta una guida per l`effettuazione di una transazione.
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