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On Thursday, the EUR/USD currency pair experienced extremely calm trading. This was expected, as the market had begun to stabilize after the turbulent movements seen on Monday and Tuesday. To recap, on Monday, Donald Trump officially took office as President of the United States and promptly made numerous statements regarding how half the world would "sing a different tune," as well as outlining the measures Washington would implement to "restore fairness to the U.S." The market might have dismissed these statements, considering the many false claims Trump made during his first term. However, it appeared that it did not—at least, that's how it seems.
During these two days, volatility was indeed high, and the US dollar was steadily falling. We already questioned the influence of the "Trump factor" on the movement of the EUR/USD pair. In other words, what has changed since Trump took office? He has talked about tariffs against Canada, Mexico, China and the EU almost every day in the last 2 months and... did the same thing on Monday. Therefore, we believe that the upward correction (that is, the fall of the US dollar) is primarily associated with the technical need to correct, and not at all with the arrival of Trump.
Analyzing the daily timeframe reveals that a correction has been developing for some time. Since we are looking at a daily timeframe, this correction could last for an extended period. Many traders, especially beginners, often make the mistake of thinking that the market never pauses. In simpler terms, the pair has already experienced an upward correction, and many traders are now awaiting either a return to the downward trend or a continuation of the upward correction. In reality, the price may begin to form alternating short-term trends on the hourly timeframe. This could appear as an upward trend of approximately 250 to 300 pips, followed by a similar downward trend. It might take several months before the decline resumes, so patience is essential.
Additionally, the upcoming meetings of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) next week are unlikely to surprise market participants. It is widely expected that the ECB will lower rates by another 0.25%, while the Fed will likely keep its rate unchanged. The ECB may implement four rate cuts by the summer of 2025, while the Fed is only expected to make one at most. Therefore, unless there is a significant disruption, such as unexpected actions from Trump, the dollar is likely to resume its growth against the euro. The main question is when this will occur. Currently, there are no indications that the four-month downward trend is set to resume, either on the four-hour or hourly timeframe. As a result, it is too early to discuss a new phase of dollar strength.
The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last five trading days as of January 24 is 89 pips, classified as "high." We expect the pair to move between the levels of 1.0337 and 1.0515 on Friday. The higher linear regression channel remains directed downward, indicating that the global downward trend persists. The CCI indicator has entered the overbought zone, signaling a potential resumption of the downward trend. A bearish divergence may still form, after which a new decline could begin.
The EUR/USD pair has started a new wave of correction. For several months now, we have consistently maintained that the euro is expected to decline in the medium term. Therefore, we fully support the overall downward direction and do not believe it has ended. The Fed has paused the easing of monetary policy, while the ECB, on the contrary, is accelerating it. Thus, the dollar still lacks reasons for a medium-term decline, apart from purely technical, corrective factors.
Short positions remain relevant with targets at 1.0254 and 1.0193, but the current correction needs to end first. This correction may conclude near the 1.0437 level. If you trade based purely on technicals, long positions can be considered when the price is above the moving average, with targets at 1.0437 and 1.0498. However, any growth at the moment should be classified as a correction.
Linear Regression Channels help determine the current trend. If both channels are aligned, it indicates a strong trend.
Moving Average Line (settings: 20,0, smoothed) defines the short-term trend and guides the trading direction.
Murray Levels act as target levels for movements and corrections.
Volatility Levels (red lines) represent the likely price range for the pair over the next 24 hours based on current volatility readings.
CCI Indicator: If it enters the oversold region (below -250) or overbought region (above +250), it signals an impending trend reversal in the opposite direction.
*La presente analisi del mercato ha un carattere esclusivamente informativo e non rappresenta una guida per l`effettuazione di una transazione.
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