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On Tuesday, EUR/USD continued to decline after rebounding from the 127.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.0507 and reached the 100.0% Fibonacci level at 1.0437. Since no rebound occurred at this level, the decline may continue today. A break below the upward trend channel would be the first sign of a shift to a bearish trend. In this case, I expect a strong and prolonged decline in the euro.
The wave structure remains clear. The last completed downward wave broke below the previous wave's low, while the last (still unfinished) upward wave has surpassed the previous two peaks. Thus, the bearish trend is considered completed. However, the recent waves have been very small. The current upward wave can be easily broken down into 5-6 smaller waves. The key issue here is determining which movement size qualifies as a wave. Since the situation is not entirely straightforward, it is best to rely on the trend channel for guidance.
On Tuesday, the news background was limited. The US durable goods orders report showed a 2.2% decline, while traders expected a 0.6% increase. Derivative indicators also came in weaker than forecasts. This presented bulls with an opportunity to push higher within the current bullish trend. However, they preferred to wait for the outcome of the FOMC meeting.
The Fed meeting is always a crucial event for the market, even if no changes to monetary policy are expected. Right after the decision, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak, and the content of his speech is unpredictable. Therefore, surprises are always possible, and today is no exception. Traders' reluctance to take risks before such an event is understandable. Moreover, Donald Trump's influence is a major factor affecting market sentiment—and potentially the Fed's stance as well.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair broke above the 127.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.0436. This suggests that the uptrend may continue toward the 100.0% Fibonacci level at 1.0603, while the euro has now broken out of the downward trend channel. This signals a potential trend reversal to bullish, but how long will this trend last?
A bearish divergence on the CCI indicator points to a possible decline in the near future, but bears have yet to secure a close below 1.0436.
Over the last reporting week, institutional traders added 4,905 long positions and 6,994 short positions. The Non-commercial category remains bearish, suggesting further downside for the pair. The total number of long positions held by speculators is now 167,000, while short positions stand at 230,000.
For 18 consecutive weeks, major traders have been selling the euro. This confirms a bearish trend with no exceptions. Occasionally, bulls dominate on a weekly basis, but this remains anomalous.
The key driver of the dollar's decline—expectations of Fed monetary policy easing—has already been priced in. The market no longer has reasons to sell the dollar. New factors may emerge over time, but for now, further appreciation of the US dollar remains the most likely scenario. Technical analysis also supports a continuation of the long-term bearish trend, which leads me to expect a further decline in EUR/USD.
On January 29, the economic calendar includes two major Fed-related events. Market sentiment may be strongly influenced by the news flow, but likely only in the evening.
Fibonacci levels:
*La presente analisi del mercato ha un carattere esclusivamente informativo e non rappresenta una guida per l`effettuazione di una transazione.
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