26.02.202518:55 Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD Analysis – February 25th

The wave structure of GBP/USD remains somewhat ambiguous, but overall, it is clear. Currently, there is a high probability of forming a long-term bearish trend, with only Wave 2 in 1 raising some doubts due to its unconvincing appearance. Wave 5, on the other hand, appears well-defined, leading me to consider the senior Wave 1 as completed.

If this assumption is correct, a series of corrective waves is currently forming, with targets near the 26th and 28th figures. The first two waves of this structure appear to be completed, and the third wave may conclude at any moment.

Since the euro is likely continuing the formation of a corrective structure, I expect the same for the British pound. It is also important to note that the Bank of England (BoE) is preparing for four rounds of monetary easing in 2025, while the Federal Reserve (Fed) does not plan to cut rates by more than 50 basis points. The UK economy consistently disappoints market participants, whereas the U.S. economy strengthens confidence in the dollar. These factors should deter market participants from massively selling the dollar and buying the pound.

The GBP/USD rate remained virtually unchanged on Wednesday. Wave C in 2 may have already completed its formation, as it appears quite convincing and well-structured. If there were more economic data releases this week, we might have already seen the transition to forming a bearish Wave 3. However, there is no news flow, and the market remains stagnant.

Even the reports due on Thursday and Friday are unlikely to increase market volatility significantly. Let's analyze them.

Today, the U.S. will release GDP data for Q4 and durable goods orders. Later, the initial jobless claims report will be published. The jobless claims report is mostly formal, as it is released weekly and rarely triggers market reactions.

The GDP report is expected to be the final estimate, but the market has already absorbed the fact that U.S. economic growth slowed slightly at the end of last year. If the final figure does not fall below the second estimate, there won't be much of a market reaction.

The durable goods orders report is the only potentially interesting event, as it is expected to show a 2% increase. Any value below this level will be perceived negatively for the dollar.

Friday's reports are more numerous, but most of them are unlikely to attract much attention.

General Conclusions

The wave pattern of GBP/USD indicates that the formation of a bearish trend is ongoing, with its first wave already completed. Now, we should wait for the formation of a convincing corrective wave structure, after which new selling opportunities can be considered.

The minimum targets of the corrective structure near the 26th figure have already been reached. I believe there is a very high probability of at least a 200-point decline.

Of course, market-moving news could emerge that strengthens buyers, but for now, I do not see such catalysts, so I am preparing for further downside.

On the higher wave scale, the wave structure has transformed. We can now assume that a bearish trend is forming, as the previous three-wave bullish structure is clearly completed. If this assumption is correct, we should expect a corrective Wave 2 or b, followed by an impulsive Wave 3 or c.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often change unexpectedly.
2. If there is no confidence in the market's direction, it is better to stay out of it.
3. There is never 100% certainty in price movement direction. Always use stop-loss orders to protect capital.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.