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EUR/USD moved sharply lower on Friday; the slide through 1.1030 support will erode technical support and the break below the key 1.1000 level will also undermine the eur bulls' confidence, potentially targeting 1.0845.
The latest data fom the eurozone confirmed that manufacturing remained in recession in August. The UK manufacturing data also recorded a further deterioration to 85-month lows. In this context, investors are discouraged with a bleak outlook for the European economy.
On Monday, US financial markets are closed for the Labor day holiday that will inevitably subdue trading activity. Investors are cautious awaiting key economic data this week. The ISM manufacturing data will be released on Tuesday. Besides, the crucial data on the US labor market is due on Friday.
There is certainly the risk of weakness in the ISM manufacturing release, but the US dollar is still seen as the best of a bad bunch in the short term.
There is also evidence of a lack of dollar liquidity in global markets which will underpin the US currency. Therefore, some one is still poised to sell EUR/USD.
Labor Day may also stem the flow of rhetoric from President Trump. There is, however, no doubt that he will be watching the markets closely. On Friday, he continued his criticism of the Federal Reserve and noted that the euro was declining sharply which he also claimed was the result of the Fed's procrastination.
President Trump remains a wild card in the short-term outlook. With the euro at two-year lows and the Chinese yuan at 11-year lows, the risk of US intervention or legislation in an attempt to weaken the dollar is a clear danger.
Any direct intervention would push the US dollar sharply lower in an immediate response even if the moves are retraced quickly.
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