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4-hour timeframe
Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 52p - 26p - 43p - 80p - 67p - 60p.
Average volatility over the past 5 days: 56p (average).
The EUR/USD currency pair continued a not too strong upward correctional movement in the third trading day of the week against the downward trend of the last three weeks. The pair made another attempt to overcome the Ichimoku cloud on February 26, which again ended in failure. Formally, consolidation above the cloud took place, but very soon quotes of the euro/dollar pair returned to the Ichimoku cloud. Thus, the US currency has risen in price today, despite the fact that the pair continues to trade around three-year lows. Despite the fact that stock markets and indices in the United States collapsed this week. Despite the fact that the coronavirus continues to spread across the planet and its consequences can be very serious for the global economy, which has just recovered from trade wars. However, as we have repeatedly said, the COVID-2019 virus affects not only the US economy. It also has a negative impact on the European economy. Thus, nothing in the balance of power between the economies of the European Union and the United States does not change. Accordingly, in recent years there have been no new reasons for the appreciation of the euro or the fall of the US dollar. Not a single important macroeconomic report was published either in the European Union or in the United States on Wednesday. Thus, the fundamental and macroeconomic background was again completely empty. At the same time, the volatility of the pair remains at a fairly high level, about 60 points per day.
Since traders simply do not receive any important messages of an economic nature, one has to pay attention to secondary (for the currency market) news and messages. In the United States, for example, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo made a statement accusing China and Iran of hiding reliable information about the extent of the spread of the pneumonia virus. Beijing previously expelled three Wall Street reporters from China, which sparked a storm of criticism in America. The official reasons for the removal of journalists from China are unknown, but the American side believes that independent reporters are necessary in order for the world to receive reliable information about the infection problem. "The exile of our journalists draws attention to the problem of the PRC government, which previously led to an outbreak of SARS, and now to an outbreak of coronavirus, namely censorship. This can be fatal," said Pompeo. Similar allegations have been directed against Iran. According to Pompeo, in Iran the number of infections and deaths from the virus can be much higher than the government reports. Pompeo also said that the United States was deeply saddened by the fact that the Iranian government had concealed "important information about the infection." "All countries, including Iran, must tell the truth about the coronavirus and collaborate with international healthcare organizations," Pompeo summed up.
However, the coronavirus and its distribution do not yet directly affect the foreign exchange market. Yes, perhaps, amid the collapse of US stock markets, some investors are transferring their funds to safer assets, such as gold or franc, or the yen. However, the Chinese infection has not yet been reflected in the euro/dollar pair. Thus, the corrective movement is still ongoing, and it is very difficult to work out, as there is no news from the US and the EU, and the upward movement is extremely uncertain.
Trading recommendations:
The EUR/USD pair continues to be a corrective movement. Thus, now we can formally consider long positions with targets of 1.0915 and 1.0936 after the MACD indicator turns up, which will indicate the completion of a correction round, but only with small lots or not at all. It will be possible to return to selling the pair with targets at support levels of 1.0824 and 1.0795, if traders manage to gain a foothold back below the critical line.
Explanation of the illustration:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen is the red line.
Kijun-sen is the blue line.
Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.
Senkou Span B - light purple dashed line.
Chikou Span - green line.
Bollinger Bands Indicator:
3 yellow lines.
MACD indicator:
Red line and bar graph with white bars in the indicators window.
Support / Resistance Classic Levels:
Red and gray dashed lines with price symbols.
Pivot Level:
Yellow solid line.
Volatility Support / Resistance Levels:
Gray dotted lines without price designations.
Possible price movements:
Red and green arrows.
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