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The key takeaway from yesterday's Q4 GDP report was that economic growth in the US was strong at the end of 2022, thanks to the strong labor market and lower inflationary pressures.
The BEA (Bureau of Economic Analysis) said inflation-adjusted GDP is up 2.9% year-on-year for the 4th quarter of 2022. However, compared to Q3 2022, the figure is lower because the growth back then was 3.2%.
Most likely, the reason for growth is the consumer spending report, which rose by 2.1%. The second half of last year was also very different because the beginning of 2022 was a time of economic recession. The US has recovered since then, and the agressive rate hikes by the Fed did not lead to a deeper recession. However, it should be noted that the average GDP growth was only 1% last year, much lower than that of 2021's, which is 5.7%.
If the Federal Reserve does not raise rates by more than a percentage point at the next two FOMC meetings, bullish sentiment will persist in the precious metals market.
Currently, the core PCE report is forecast to show a decrease from 4.7% in November to 4.4% in December.
Many analysts believe that inflation will continue to fall, but will stop at a certain level that is well above the Fed's target of 2%. If this assumption comes true, the Fed will face more problems, that is, raise the 2% target or remain aggressive for a longer period.
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