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Investors are estimating a 30% likelihood of the Fed's first rate cut in March next year, following last week's tepid inflation data. Investors are keenly awaiting the minutes from the Fed's latest rate-setting meeting, set to be published tomorrow, hoping to gain better insight into the policymakers' thoughts. The Fed's cautious stance is expected to continue, exerting downward pressure on US yields and the US dollar. Treasury yields have risen in anticipation of a US 20-year bond auction.
The Stoxx Europe 600 index remains in a holding pattern amid negative corporate news impacting stocks. Bayer AG's shares took the hardest hit after the German pharmaceutical giant halted a key drug study and suffered a setback in a trial related to its Roundup herbicide. American counterpart Bristol-Myers Squibb Co.'s shares fell by 3.2%.
Italian bank stocks rose following Moody's Investors Service's upgrade of the country's sovereign debt outlook to stable, averting an immediate threat of a downgrade to 'junk' status. The yield spread of Italian bonds over German bonds narrowed.
Meanwhile, rising energy prices could dampen prospects for low inflation and interest rates in the eurozone. Natural gas prices surged after a ship seized in the Red Sea by Houthi rebels reminded of the potential impact of the Israel-Hamas conflict on vital waterways used for fuel transport. European natural gas futures jumped 6.9%.
Japan's Nikkei 225 index surpassed its June peak, reaching its highest level since 1990, with a year-to-date gain of about 28%. The index benefited from the yen's recent weakness, strong corporate earnings, and corporate governance reforms.
In terms of technical analysis for the S&P 500, the index is maintaining its bullish momentum. The key support level is now established at $4,515, which bulls need to defend. Overcoming the resistance at $4,539 is crucial to reinforce the current uptrend and could lead to a potential breakthrough to $4,557. Securing a position above the significant resistance at $4,582 would further consolidate the bulls' dominance in the market. On the downside, if the index retreats due to reduced risk appetite, bulls should protect of $4,515 and $4,488 to prevent further losses. Breaking through this level, the index may pierce the support at $4,469, potentially extending the decline to $4,447.
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