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The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD remains unchanged. Currently, we are observing the formation of a presumed wave 3 in 3 or c of the downward trend segment. If this is the case, the decline in quotes will continue for quite some time, as the first wave of this segment completed its formation around the 1.0450 mark. Therefore, the third wave of this trend segment should conclude below this level.
The 1.0450 mark is the target for the third wave alone. If the current downward trend segment becomes impulsive, we could see five waves, and the euro could fall below the 1.0000 mark. Of course, it is challenging to expect such a development now, but the currency market has had plenty of surprises in recent years. Anything is possible.
Could the wave pattern change? However, if we have observed a new upward trend segment since October 3 last year, the previous downward wave does not fit into any structure. Therefore, an upward segment is possible only with a significant complication of the wave pattern. In recent weeks, the pair has only been rising, threatening the integrity of the wave pattern.
The 1.0880 Mark Held Off the First Wave of Buyers
On Thursday, the EUR/USD rate increased by 30 basis points but retreated slightly during the American session. Today's market sentiment was influenced exclusively by business activity indices in Germany, the Eurozone, and the USA. In Germany, the index exceeded market expectations. The services sector reached 53.9, and the manufacturing sector was at 45.4. The Eurozone saw a similar pattern, with the services sector at 53.3 and manufacturing at 47.4. However, the US also reported better-than-expected figures, with services at 54.8 and manufacturing at 50.9. Consequently, all six indices that mattered to the market today exceeded expectations. It's not surprising that demand for the euro increased in the morning and until the release of the American statistics, after which the demand for the US dollar rose.
However, I want to highlight another significant aspect. If it weren't for the stronger American indices, buyers would have been ready today or tomorrow to push the pair to the 1.0880 mark. This mark remains the last barrier for the euro on its path to transforming the entire trend segment into an upward one and also the last hope for the dollar. Today, the US currency was fortunate, as the last month has mostly seen weak economic data from America. But tomorrow or next week, buyers may again attempt to break through the 1.0880 mark.
General Conclusions
Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, the construction of the downward set of waves continues. In the near future, I expect the formation of the impulsive downward wave 3 in 3 or c with a significant decline in the pair. I continue to look for a favorable moment for new sales with targets around the estimated mark of 1.0462. A failed attempt to break the 1.0880 mark, equivalent to 61.8% Fibonacci, may indicate the market's readiness for new sales.
On the higher wave scale, it is clear that the presumed wave 2 or b, which has reached more than 61.8% Fibonacci of the first wave, may be completed. If this is indeed the case, then the scenario of forming wave 3 or c and a decline below the 1.0000 mark may unfold.
Basic Principles of My Analysis:
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