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The EUR/USD pair continued its upward momentum on Monday after rebounding from the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.0676 and consolidated above the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.0722. Thus, the upward movement could extend towards the next Fibonacci retracement level at 50.0%-1.0760. Consolidation below the level of 1.0722 would favor the US dollar and possibly resume the decline towards 1.0676. Bears took a brief pause.
The wave situation remains clear. A new downward wave has already broken the low of the previous wave from June 11th, while the last completed upward wave failed to surpass the peak of the previous wave. Thus, the "bearish" trend persists and continues to develop. In the near future, the news background should not hinder bears from continuing their attacks. The first sign of the end of the "bearish" trend will be a breakthrough of the peak of the last upward wave from June 12th. However, bulls are unlikely to have the strength to push the pair up to the 1.0850 level in the coming days.
The information background on Monday was almost absent. Christine Lagarde was not overly explicit, but she did mention that the ECB may not necessarily lower rates by 0.25% every two meetings. According to her (later confirmed by the ECB's chief economist), the ECB will closely monitor the slowing inflation trend. If the slowdown is too weak, the ECB may take longer pauses between rate cuts. Therefore, the market should not repeat the mistake made with the Fed, where market participants have been waiting for a rate cut for half a year and still need to get one. The ECB will also not rush with monetary easing, and the fact of a rate cut in June should not mislead traders. The ECB will lower rates over time, but it could be one easing over three or even four meetings. Yesterday, the European currency slightly strengthened on this information.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the euro after forming a "bullish" divergence on the RSI indicator. Quotes closed above the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.0714, but I do not believe in a prolonged rise of the euro. A week ago, there was a close below the trend line on the 4-hour chart, which shifted traders' sentiment to "bearish." Therefore, I expect a small correction followed by a resumption of the decline.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
During the last reporting week, speculators closed 1,260 long contracts and opened 22,966 short contracts. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group turned "bearish" several weeks ago, and sellers are currently increasing their positions. The total number of long contracts held by speculators now stands at 187,000, while short contracts amount to 144,000. The gap is narrowing.
The situation will continue to favor bears. I see no long-term reasons to buy the euro, as the ECB has started easing monetary policy, which will reduce yields on bank deposits and government bonds. Meanwhile, in America, rates will remain high for several more months at least, making the dollar more attractive to investors. The potential for the euro to decline, even according to the COT report, looks significant. If there is still a "bullish" sentiment among major players now, and the euro is falling, where will the euro be when sentiment turns "bearish"?
News Calendar for the US and Eurozone:
Eurozone - Consumer Price Index (09:00 UTC).
Eurozone - Economic Sentiment Index in Germany (09:00 UTC).
US - Retail Sales MoM (12:30 UTC).
US - Industrial Production MoM (12:30 UTC).
June 18th's economic events calendar includes several entries, with US reports standing out. The news background may moderate the impact on traders' sentiment today.
Forecast for EUR/USD and Trading Advice:
Selling the pair was possible upon closing below the support zone of 1.0785–1.0797, with targets at 1.0722 and 1.0676. Both targets have been reached. New sales could be considered on a rebound from the level of 1.0760 with targets at 1.0676 and 1.0602 or upon closing below the level of 1.0722 with the same targets. Buying the euro was possible on an hourly chart rebound from the level of 1.0676 with targets at 1.0722 and 1.0760. Positions can be maintained open.
Fibonacci levels are set between 1.0602–1.0917 on the hourly chart and 1.0450–1.1139 on the 4-hour chart.
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