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When a decline seems inevitable, the ability to recover becomes crucial. Gold has quickly rebounded from financial market shocks, reinforcing the notion that the recent XAU/USD pullback was driven by speculative factors. Specifically, it stemmed from investors' intentions to meet margin calls on assets being sold off in the markets. Once the storm subsided and calm returned, the precious metal resumed its pursuit of record highs.
Although the panic about a U.S. recession has eased, the likelihood of a downturn is increasing. Goldman Sachs raised the odds from 29% to 41%, and JP Morgan from 20% to 31%. A cooling U.S. economy creates favorable conditions for gold. Investors are beginning to demand a lifeline from the Federal Reserve in the form of aggressive rate cuts, leading to a drop in Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar.
U.S. Recession Probability Trends
Gold is denominated in U.S. dollars, so it generally rises when the USD index declines, as seen in August. This is largely due to a series of disappointing macroeconomic reports. The latest sign of an impending GDP slowdown came from weak producer price data. The core CPI showed no growth on a monthly basis, and the PPI for services declined in July for the first time this year.
In a strong economy, there cannot be weak inflation by definition, so investors interpreted the latest data as another sign of an approaching recession. The upcoming U.S. consumer price data could further fuel this concern. If the figures align with Bloomberg's expert forecasts, the three-month CPI will drop to its lowest level since early 2021. This would give the Federal Reserve the flexibility to lower the federal funds rate in September, thereby supporting XAU/USD.
U.S. Inflation Trends
The escalation of conflicts in Eastern Europe, including the first invasion of Russian territory since World War II, and in the Middle East, where Israel is preparing for potential attacks from Iran and a confrontation with Hezbollah, is adding fuel to the XAU/USD rally. Geopolitics has always been a reliable driver for the precious metal as a safe-haven asset, and the increasing risks are being embraced by the bulls with enthusiasm.
Other favorable factors for gold include dedollarisation, strong demand from central banks, increased buying from China and India, and the gradual return of investor interest in specialized exchange-traded funds, remain in play, making new record highs a realistic expectation.
Technically, on the daily gold chart, a strong reversal pattern, the Triple Top, is forming. Therefore, if the attempt to breach the $2481 per ounce resistance fails, the long positions formed at $2408 should be closed. However, if the bulls succeed, these positions can be maintained and periodically increased. Target levels include $2515 and $2570 per ounce.
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