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The EUR/USD pair fell below the 127.2% corrective level at 1.0984 on Thursday, but the drop was short-lived. At the moment, bullish traders are making another attempt to secure a position above the 1.0984 level, which would allow for further growth of the euro towards the mid-week peak and the 161.8% Fibonacci level at 1.1070. A rebound from the 1.0984 level would signal a potential reversal in favor of the U.S. dollar and a slight decline towards the support zone of 1.0917 – 1.0929.
The wave situation has become somewhat more complicated, but overall, there are no significant concerns. The last completed downward wave did not break the low of the previous wave, while the new upward wave has surpassed the peak from August 5th. Thus, the bullish trend remains intact. For the bullish trend to be canceled, the bears now need to break the low of the last downward wave, which is around the 1.0882 level.
The news backdrop supported the bears for the first time in a while yesterday. U.S. retail sales volumes grew by 1% in July, compared to market expectations of +0.3%, while the number of initial jobless claims rose by 227,000 compared to expectations of 235,000. However, just an hour later, another key report on U.S. industrial production was released, showing a decline of 0.6% in July, against market expectations of -0.3%. Thus, while the dollar gained some dominance on Thursday, it quickly lost it. The bears retreated once again and are likely to continue retreating, as most traders expect the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy in September. This is a significant factor in the decline of the U.S. dollar. There can be endless debates about how much of the FOMC rate cut has already been priced in or discussions about the ECB's monetary policy easing, but the market's actions clearly indicate that it is focused on buying. In any case, there are no signs of the bullish trend ending at the moment.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair made a reversal in favor of the euro around the 38.2% corrective level at 1.0876 and began a new upward movement. Consolidation above the 23.6% Fibonacci level at 1.0977 suggests further growth of the pair towards the next corrective level at 0.0% – 1.1139. No imminent divergences are observed in any indicators. In my view, the current growth does not fully align with the news backdrop, but the chart still clearly indicates a bullish trend with no signs of ending.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
In the latest reporting week, speculators opened 2,793 long positions and closed 12,988 short positions. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group turned bearish a few months ago, but bulls are currently in control again. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 186,000, while short positions total 152,000.
I still believe that the situation will continue to shift in favor of the bears. I don't see long-term reasons to buy the euro, as the ECB has started easing its monetary policy, which will reduce the yield on bank deposits and government bonds. Meanwhile, yields in the U.S. will remain high at least until September, making the dollar more attractive to investors. The potential for the euro to decline appears significant. However, it's important not to overlook the technical analysis, which currently doesn't indicate a strong decline in the euro, as well as the news backdrop, which frequently puts obstacles in the dollar's path.
News Calendar for the U.S. and Eurozone:
The economic calendar for August 16th includes only two significant entries, which will determine whether the dollar can recover a bit before the week ends. The impact of the news backdrop on trader sentiment today may be moderate, especially in the second half of the day.
Forecast for EUR/USD and Trader Recommendations:
I wouldn't consider selling the pair today, as the bears are just retreating from the market. Buying is possible if the pair consolidates above the 1.0984 level on the hourly chart, targeting 1.1048 and 1.1070. Yesterday, the dollar received unexpected support from the news, but only for a short period. Today, it may receive short-term support as well, but the trend remains bullish.
Fibonacci levels are drawn from 1.0917 – 1.0668 on the hourly chart and from 1.0450 – 1.1139 on the 4-hour chart.
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