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06.09.202416:48 Analisis Forex & Kajian: USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders for September 6 (U.S. Session)

Review of trades and tips for trading the Japanese yen

The price test at 142.74 occurred when the MACD indicator moved significantly below the zero line, limiting the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the dollar. Buying on a rebound from the 142.12 level allowed me to gain approximately 50 points of profit. The further movement of the pair will depend on U.S. unemployment and non-farm payrolls data. News of a labor market recovery will lead to a sharp strengthening of the dollar and a decline in the yen. Otherwise, it is best to continue selling the dollar in line with the downtrend. The speeches of FOMC members John Williams and Christopher Waller should not be ignored either. As for the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on Scenario 1 without paying attention to the MACD indicator, as I expect strong volatility spikes.

Buy Signal

Scenario 1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY when the entry point around 143.28 (green line on the chart) is reached, targeting a rise to the 144.68 level (thicker green line on the chart). Around 144.68, I will exit the purchases and open sales in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30–35 points in the opposite direction from the level). A rise in the pair is likely today if strong U.S. data is released.Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 142.82 price level when the MACD is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. A rise to the target levels of 143.28 and 144.68 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after breaking the 142.82 level (red line on the chart), which will lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 141.40 level, where I plan to exit the sales and immediately open purchases in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Selling pressure on the pair will resume if weak U.S. data is released.Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 143.28 price level when the MACD is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline to the target levels of 142.82 and 141.40 can be expected.

What is shown on the chart:

• The thin green line indicates the entry price where you can buy the trading instrument.
• The thick green line indicates the estimated price where you can set Take Profit or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• The thin red line indicates the entry price where you can sell the trading instrument.
• The thick red line indicates the estimated price where you can set Take Profit or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: It is important to consider overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important: Beginner traders in the forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

* Analisis pasaran yang disiarkan di sini adalah bertujuan untuk meningkatkan kesedaran anda, tetapi tidak untuk memberi arahan untuk membuat perdagangan.

Jakub Novak,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
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