31.10.202415:41 Analisis Forex & Kajian: USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on October 31st (U.S. Session)

Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The test of the 152.73 level occurred when the MACD moved well below the zero line, limiting the pair's downward potential despite the Japanese regulator's acknowledgment of the potential need for further rate cuts. The opportunity to buy on a bounce at 152.12 was more interesting, as I discussed in detail in the morning forecast. As a result, the pair recovered back to the 152.73 area, providing a good profit. In the second half of the day, the focus is on U.S. data, including initial jobless claims, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures index, and changes in personal spending and income levels. Rising inflation alongside income growth is positive for the dollar, while a decline in these indicators would prompt selling the dollar, as the Fed would be more likely to lean towards further rate cuts. For the intraday strategy, I'll focus on Scenarios 1 and 2.

Buy Signal

• Scenario 1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY at the 152.89 level (green line on the chart), aiming for an increase to the 153.51 level (thicker green line on the chart). At 153.51, I'll exit the buys and open sells in the opposite direction, targeting a 30-35 point move in the opposite direction. The pair's growth today will only be possible after strong U.S. data. Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD is above the zero line and just starting its upward movement.
• Scenario 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 152.40 level when the MACD is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward reversal. Growth toward the opposing levels of 152.89 and 153.51 can be expected.

Sell Signal

• Scenario 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after a break below the 152.40 level (red line on the chart), which should lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers is the 151.71 level, where I'll exit the sell trades and then buy, aiming for a 20-25 point move in the opposite direction. Pressure on the pair may return following weak U.S. data. Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD is below the zero line and just starting its decline.
• Scenario 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 152.89 level, with the MACD in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. A decline toward the opposing levels of 152.40 and 151.71 can be expected.

On the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – suggested price where Take Profit can be placed, or profit can be taken manually, as further growth beyond this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – suggested price where Take Profit can be placed, or profit can be taken manually, as further decline beyond this level is unlikely;
• MACD – for market entry, it's important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should make entry decisions cautiously. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it's best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you risk quickly losing your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is often counterproductive for an intraday trader.