01.11.202413:35 Analisis Forex & Kajian: USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

The Japanese yen is losing ground today. The yen failed to extend its gains despite earlier signs of recovery following Japan's PMI manufacturing index report. It initially strengthened after comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda post-meeting, which increased the likelihood of a rate hike by the BOJ. However, the manufacturing PMI from Jibun Bank for October came in at 49.2, down from September's 49.7, indicating continued contraction in Japan's manufacturing sector, with a more pronounced decline in production and new orders at the start of Q4 2024.

According to Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary, Yoshimasa Hayashi, the BOJ will work closely with the government to implement appropriate monetary policy aimed at achieving its inflation target.

For trading opportunities in USD/JPY today, traders should focus on the release of the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report. Expectations are that the U.S. economy added 113,000 jobs in October, while the unemployment rate is forecast to remain steady at 4.1%.

Technical Analysis: USD/JPY is trading with a bullish bias. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above the 50 mark and has exited the overbought zone. The immediate support level is the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Below it, the 100-day and 200-day SMAs converge. Further down, a breach below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level from the July to September decline could shift the pair's bias toward the bears.

On the other hand, resistance remains at the 61.8% Fibonacci level, followed by the significant resistance level of 153.00. Clearing these levels could easily push USD/JPY toward 154.00, opening a path toward the 154.30 supply area and the next round target level of 155.00.