05.11.202413:14 Analisis Forex & Kajian: EUR/GBP. Analysis and Forecast

The EUR/GBP pair consolidates as investors adopt a cautious stance ahead of the Bank of England's pivotal meeting on Thursday.

The Bank of England is expected to focus on a long-term outlook of slowing inflation, likely voting for a rate cut for the second time this year. However, the expectation that UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves' first budget might fuel inflation, which could potentially cause the Bank of England to lower rates at a slower pace, serves as a significant counterweight for the EUR/GBP pair. Nevertheless, the downside is cushioned by hopes for a more hawkish stance from the European Central Bank (ECB).

According to data released last week, inflation in the Eurozone rose to 2% in October, while higher-than-expected GDP growth figures from the major Eurozone economies suggest the ECB may maintain its path with a 25-basis-point rate cut at its December policy meeting. This outlook strengthens the euro, limiting EUR/GBP's momentum following last week's breakout past the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).

Investors remain on the sidelines amid uncertainty surrounding the U.S. presidential elections and ECB President Christine Lagarde's upcoming speech on Wednesday. It would be prudent to wait for strong follow-up buying before positioning for further upward movement in EUR/GBP, following its recent recovery from sub-0.8300 levels.

From a technical perspective, mixed oscillators suggest caution is warranted before taking positions in either direction.