14.11.202415:28 Analisis Forex & Kajian: EUR/USD. Analysis and Forecast

The EUR/USD pair continues to face selling pressure for the fifth consecutive day, driven by post-election enthusiasm, which has been a key factor in the rally of the US dollar.

The US Dollar Index, which tracks the dollar's value against a basket of major currencies, has reached its highest level since early November 2023. This rise is fueled by expectations that the policies of newly elected President Donald Trump will stimulate economic growth. Additionally, Trump's plans to increase tariffs on imports could accelerate inflation and potentially force the Federal Reserve to pause its easing cycle.

The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released yesterday revealed that the pace of progress in reducing inflation appears to be slowing. This could lead to smaller rate cuts next year. As a result, US Treasury yields remain elevated, continuing to bolster the US dollar.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the overall CPI rose by 0.2% in October and by 2.6% over the past 12 months. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy categories, increased by 0.3% last month and by 3.3% year-over-year. These figures suggest that the Fed is likely to implement its third rate cut in December as the labor market continues to soften.

Comments from Federal Reserve officials underscore the challenges in implementing additional rate cuts. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem noted the increased risk of inflation, making further rate reductions difficult for the central bank. Similarly, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan emphasized caution, warning that aggressive rate cuts could trigger renewed inflationary pressures and force the FOMC to reverse course.

Investors should closely monitor comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, scheduled for Thursday, as they may provide insights into the Fed's trajectory for rate adjustments. These remarks will play a crucial role in shaping the short-term direction of the US dollar and influencing the EUR/USD pair's momentum.

The euro continues to face pressure from political uncertainty in Germany. This is largely due to the collapse of the ruling coalition in the eurozone's largest economy. Additionally, potential tariffs on European exports to the US could significantly impact the region's economy. These developments are exerting downward pressure on the euro, pushing the EUR/USD pair closer to record lows.

Economic news from the US, including the weekly initial jobless claims report and the Producer Price Index (PPI), may further stimulate demand for the US dollar, creating short-term trading opportunities in the EUR/USD pair. However, the overall fundamental backdrop remains in favor of dollar bulls, suggesting that the path of least resistance for spot prices points downward.

A break below the previous yearly low reinforces the bearish outlook for EUR/USD, indicating that the path of least resistance points downward.

The RSI (Relative Strength Index) on the daily chart has just entered oversold territory, warranting some caution. Short-term consolidation or a modest rebound may be prudent before positioning for further downward.

Spot prices remain vulnerable to further declines below the critical threshold of 1.0500, with the October 2023 swing low likely to be tested.Any meaningful recovery attempt will encounter stiff resistance at the 1.0600 level.

A subsequent rally could trigger short-covering, lifting the pair toward the 1.0655 level. Further gains may present selling opportunities, capped by the 1.0700 level, which serves as a key pivot point. A sustained break above this level could open the door for additional upward momentum.