14.11.202415:48 Analisis Forex & Kajian: USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on November 14th (U.S. Session)

Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The test of the 156.13 level during the first half of the day coincided with the MACD indicator positioned well above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar. The second test of 156.13 occurred as the MACD returned from the oversold zone. In my view, this limited the chances of a larger correction, so I refrained from selling. Key events in the second half of the day include the release of the US Producer Price Index (PPI) for October and the weekly initial jobless claims report. FOMC member Thomas Barkin's speech is expected to draw significant attention. Strong economic data is expected to reinforce the dollar's upward trajectory, continuing the trend observed in recent sessions. For intraday strategy, I will focus on implementing Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY at 156.18 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 156.67 (thicker green line on the chart). At 156.67 I will exit the market and open short positions in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35-point downward movement. Further growth is expected in line with the prevailing trend.It is important to ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise before initiating buy trades.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if the 155.86 level is tested twice consecutively, with the MACD indicator in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and encourage a short-term upward correction toward the 156.18 and 156.67 levels.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after breaking below the 155.86 level (red line on the chart), leading to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 155.36, where I will exit my short positions and immediately open long positions, as this level is expected to provide significant support, enabling a 20–25-point upward correction.It is important to ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to fall before initiating sell trades.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if the 156.18 level is tested twice consecutively, with the MACD indicator in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and likely trigger a market reversal toward the support levels of 155.86 and 155.36.

Chart Key:

• Thin Green Line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick Green Line: Target price for setting Take Profit or manually closing positions, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin Red Line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick Red Line: Target price for setting Take Profit or manually closing positions, as further declines below this level are unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: Monitor overbought and oversold zones for confirmation when entering the market.

Important Notes for Beginner Forex Traders:

• Exercise caution when making market entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before significant fundamental reports to avoid sharp price swings.
• Always set stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses when trading during news releases. Without stop-losses, you risk quickly losing your deposit, especially when trading large volumes and ignoring money management principles.
• Successful trading requires a clear and structured plan, as outlined in the example above. Spontaneous decisions based on current market conditions are inherently losing strategies for intraday traders.