27.11.202416:23 Analisis Forex & Kajian: XAU/USD: Analysis and Forecast

For the second day in a row, gold is gaining traction as concerns over a potential trade war grow. Geopolitical risks and the proposed tariff policies of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump are driving safe-haven flows. At the same time, declining U.S. Treasury yields are keeping the U.S. dollar near its weekly lows, which supports the precious metal. This has allowed gold to rebound from its weekly low near the round level of $2600.

Additionally, weak sentiment in European equity markets is another factor contributing to the rise in gold prices. However, yesterday's FOMC minutes, which indicated a more gradual approach to interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, are expected to strengthen the dollar and may limit the upward movement of gold.

Before opening new positions, XAU/USD bulls should wait for key U.S. macroeconomic data, particularly the PCE Price Index.

Technical Analysis

A strong rebound from the weekly low and subsequent strengthening provide support for the bulls. However, oscillators on the daily chart have only recently entered positive territory and have yet to confirm a clear bullish trend. This suggests that the upward movement is likely to encounter strong resistance around $2650, a level reinforced by the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart.

If gold moves above this level, it could climb toward the $2665-2670 zone — near the 50-day SMA — before targeting the round level of $2700.

On the other hand, the $2625-2622 zone may provide initial support ahead of the round level of $2600. A decisive break below $2600 could trigger renewed bearish momentum.