15.01.202514:09 Analisis Forex & Kajian: EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on January 15th (U.S. Session)

Trade Analysis and Tips for the Euro

The test of the 1.0309 price level coincided with the MACD indicator being significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I refrained from buying euros.

The second half of the day holds significant potential for change as U.S. inflation growth data for December is due, which could substantially influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions. Analyst expectations are mixed, and each data point could prompt adjustments to interest rates. If inflation exceeds forecasts, it may trigger more aggressive actions by the Fed, impacting financial markets and borrowing costs. Such a scenario could concern investors and lead to market volatility, benefiting the dollar against the euro. Conversely, if inflation data signals a slowdown, this could bolster risk assets like the euro, as expectations for easing monetary policy might rise. Alongside the data, pay attention to FOMC members' speeches, including John Williams, Thomas Barkin, and Neel Kashkari.

For intraday strategy, I'll focus more on implementing Scenario #1, even without relying on the MACD indicator, as I anticipate strong directional movement.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, buying the euro is possible at 1.0320 (green line on the chart), targeting growth to 1.0363. At 1.0363, I plan to exit the market and also open short positions for a reversal movement of 30-35 points. Expect the euro to rise following lower U.S. inflation data.Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.0295 level when the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. Growth toward the 1.0320 and 1.0363 levels can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the 1.0295 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.0253, where I plan to exit and open buy positions for a reversal movement of 20-25 points. Pressure on the pair could return if inflation is high.Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.0320 level when the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. Declines toward the 1.0295 and 1.0253 levels can be expected.

On the Chart:

• Thin green line: Entry price for buying the instrument.
• Thick green line: Estimated level for setting Take Profit or manually locking profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line: Entry price for selling the instrument.
• Thick red line: Estimated level for setting Take Profit or manually locking profits, as further declines below this level are unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: Use overbought and oversold zones for market entry guidance.

Important: Beginner traders on the Forex market must exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It's best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid abrupt price movements. If you decide to trade during news events, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you could quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you trade with large volumes and disregard money management rules.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are a losing strategy for intraday traders.