17.01.202512:32 Analisis Forex & Kajian: EUR/JPY: Analysis and Forecast

Today, the EUR/JPY pair is attempting to attract buyers, trading slightly above the psychological level of 160.00.

However, this rise lacks bullish conviction due to divergent monetary policy outlooks between the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the European Central Bank (ECB). This suggests that any further upward movement might be viewed as a selling opportunity.

Recent comments from BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda and Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino have heightened expectations of an interest rate hike at the next monetary policy meeting scheduled for next week. Additionally, increasing inflationary pressures in Japan further bolster the prospects of tighter monetary policy. As a result, a potential rate hike in Japan would strengthen the yen and limit the upside for the EUR/JPY pair.

On the other hand, the euro continues to face challenges in attracting significant buyers amid growing expectations that the ECB may further lower borrowing costs due to concerns over the eurozone's fragile economy. Rising core annual inflation in Germany has also intensified fears of stagflation in the region's largest economy, further capping the recovery of EUR/JPY.

For short-term trading opportunities, it would be prudent to focus on the release of the Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) later today.

Despite these efforts, spot prices remain on track for their third consecutive weekly loss. The fundamental backdrop clearly favors the bears, reinforcing expectations of the continuation of the multi-week downward trend.

From a technical perspective, oscillators on the daily chart remain in negative territory, confirming the likelihood of a persistent downtrend.