17.01.202512:35 Analisis Forex & Kajian: USD/JPY: Analysis and Forecast

The Japanese yen is declining, giving up part of its strong weekly gains against the US dollar. The ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, along with a positive sentiment in equity markets, is undermining demand for traditional safe-haven assets, including the yen.

However, a significant drop in the yen seems unlikely amid growing expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates again next week. These hopes have been fueled by comments from BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda and Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino. Additionally, softer inflation in the United States is expected to lead to further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, limiting dollar buyers and capping USD/JPY's upward movement.

Today, traders should focus on the release of US housing market data, which could provide fresh impetus for the USD/JPY pair.

A sustained break and acceptance below the psychological level of 155.00 could drag USD/JPY toward the 154.60 area or the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Further selling could act as a fresh trigger for bears, making spot prices vulnerable to an accelerated decline toward the round level of 154.00, with the next key support at 153.30.

On the other hand, any recovery attempt will face strong resistance at the round level of 156.00, followed by the horizontal zone at 156.40. The next significant hurdle lies around 156.70, above which USD/JPY might attempt to reclaim the round level of 157.00. Subsequent upward movement could lift spot prices further to an intermediate barrier at 157.50, paving the way toward the 158.00 level and eventually the multi-month high reached last week.