17.01.202513:00 Analisis Forex & Kajian: USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on January 17th (U.S. Session)

Analysis and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The test of the 155.56 price level coincided with the MACD indicator just starting to move upward from the zero mark, confirming a correct entry point for buying the dollar as part of a correction expected after the Asian sell-off. As a result, the dollar rose by only 25 points before the movement ended.

The upward correction for the pair could continue, but only if US data on building permits, housing starts, and industrial production exceed economists' expectations. If the statistics are mediocre, I anticipate renewed pressure on USD/JPY, as discussions about a potential rate hike in Japan continue to gain momentum.

For intraday strategy, I will focus on implementing Scenario #1 and Scenario #2 to continue the development of the downtrend.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY at the 155.97 entry point (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 156.45 (thicker green line on the chart). At 156.45, I will exit the buy position and open a sell trade for a potential pullback of 30-35 points. A rise in the pair is only likely after strong US data.Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to move upward.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 155.41 price level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 155.97 and 156.45 can then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after a break below 155.41 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 154.72, where I plan to exit the sell position and open a buy trade for a potential pullback of 20-25 points. Pressure on the pair is likely today within the observed downtrend.Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to move downward.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 155.97 price level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. Declines toward the opposite levels of 155.41 and 154.72 can then be expected.

Chart Overview

• Thin green line: Entry price for buying the instrument.
• Thick green line: Expected price where Take Profit can be set or profits can be manually locked in, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line: Entry price for selling the instrument.
• Thick red line: Expected price where Take Profit can be set or profits can be manually locked in, as further declines below this level are unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: Key for determining overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes for Beginner Traders

• Exercise caution when making market entry decisions, particularly before the release of significant fundamental reports. Avoid trading during news events to minimize exposure to sharp price swings.
• Always use stop-loss orders to limit losses. Without stop-loss orders, you risk losing your entire deposit, especially when trading large volumes without proper money management.
• A clear trading plan, such as the one outlined above, is essential for successful trading. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are typically a losing strategy for intraday traders.