20.01.202515:19 Analisis Forex & Kajian: EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on January 20th (U.S. Session)

Review of Trades and Tips for Trading the Euro

The 1.0309 price test occurred when the MACD indicator had already risen significantly above the zero mark, clearly limiting the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I refrained from buying the euro. No other market entry points were identified.

Despite the news that Germany's producer prices were significantly lower than economists' forecasts—especially on a year-over-year basis—the euro saw a slight recovery against the dollar. However, risks of a more aggressive interest rate reduction by the European Central Bank (ECB) continue to limit EUR/USD's upward potential. In an environment of anticipated economic instability, investors maintain a cautious, wait-and-see approach. Expectations of further rate cuts could pressure the euro, as lower rates often lead to currency depreciation. Simultaneously, declining producer prices in Germany may signal potential inflation deceleration, likely prompting the ECB to adopt a more cautious approach to rate policy. Economists emphasize that any hint of monetary policy easing could trigger additional volatility in the currency market.

During the American session, investors' attention will focus on Donald Trump's inauguration, as no other economic statistics are scheduled. It's advisable to closely monitor every word spoken by the new administration and adapt trading strategies accordingly.

Regarding intraday strategy, I will rely more on the execution of Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1:

Today, I plan to buy the euro upon reaching the 1.0345 price level (green line on the chart) with the target of rising to 1.0386. At 1.0386, I will exit the market and simultaneously open short positions, aiming for a 30–35 point movement in the opposite direction. Euro growth today can be expected only after new comments from Donald Trump.Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise.

Scenario #2:

I also plan to buy the euro if the price tests 1.0303 twice, while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a market reversal upward. Growth can then be expected toward the 1.0345 and 1.0386 levels.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1:

I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.0303 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.0258, where I will exit the market and simultaneously open long positions, aiming for a 20–25 point movement in the opposite direction. Selling pressure could return at any moment.Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to decline.

Scenario #2:

Chart Details

• Thin Green Line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick Green Line: Estimated price to place Take Profit or manually secure profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin Red Line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick Red Line: Estimated price to place Take Profit or manually secure profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: Use overbought and oversold zones for market entries.

Important Notes for Beginner Forex Traders

Beginner traders must exercise extreme caution when entering the market. It is best to remain out of the market before the release of significant fundamental reports to avoid abrupt exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Trading without stop orders can quickly deplete your account, especially if you trade large volumes without applying proper money management strategies.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.