21.01.202512:41 Analisis Forex & Kajian: Recent gas market developments

The gas market saw an uptick following the announcement by US President Donald Trump of a state of emergency in the US oil and gas sector, along with his approval for Arctic drilling. This initiative has sparked optimism among investors, who anticipate an increase in domestic production and, consequently, a reduced dependence on imported energy resources. Gas reserves, which have shown signs of surplus in recent years, are now appearing more promising.

While the development of Arctic resources carries significant environmental risks, it also presents new opportunities for the US economy. American companies, equipped with advanced technology, are poised to exploit these resources effectively, which could strengthen the American position in the global energy market in the long term. Investors have already started pouring money into new projects, confident that gas and oil prices will stabilize.

However, the environmental implications of this move must be considered. Activists and many scientists warn of potential damage to Arctic ecosystems. Yet, given that Trump signed an executive order withdrawing from the Paris Agreement on climate change, it seems this concern is not a priority for him. He also signed an order to withdraw the US from the World Health Organization (WHO).

As for trade tariffs, the United States may impose trade restrictions of at least 100% on BRICS countries. Furthermore, on February 1, the government plans to introduce a 25% tariff on all goods from Canada and Mexico. Statements urging the EU to buy more oil and gas from the US, or face new tariffs, have raised concerns among European officials, though it is unlikely to have a short-term impact.

There are also rumors that Trump may delay the immediate imposition of punitive tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico in the early days of his presidency. This delay would be aimed at encouraging these countries to voluntarily make trade concessions. However, as history has shown, it is unlikely that these countries will readily agree to such terms.

Regarding Russia, Trump was asked about the prospects of maintaining sanctions against the country, and he stated that he prefers tariffs as a tool of leverage. Choosing between sanctions or tariffs, he believes that tariffs are more effective as they preserve the strength of the dollar. However, it is hard to say definitively whether this is beneficial for Russia, but the lifting of sanctions could open the door for cheap LNG to neighboring markets, while the issue of tariffs is a separate matter.

Lifting sanctions could offer Russia new opportunities in international markets. The cheap LNG currently being used by Europe could strengthen Russia's position as a key player in the energy sector, allowing it to export gas to Europe and Asia, where energy demand continues to grow. This, in turn, could improve the country's economic situation, stimulating the development of new projects and investments in infrastructure.

However, the issue of tariffs raised by Trump is complex. Tariffs could add extra pressure on the Russian economy, particularly if they are applied to key goods or services. The effects of tariffs could significantly reduce competition on the international stage, as other countries would seek alternative suppliers. For Russia, this could mean a loss of market share.

In addition, the introduction of tariffs could lead to retaliatory measures from other countries, escalating global trade conflicts. In this context, it is important for Russia to adapt its economic strategy to minimize potential risks and capitalize on new opportunities.

As for the technical picture of natural gas (NG), buyers need to focus on regaining control of the 4.062 level. A break of this area would open a direct path to 4.373 and the April 2023 level around 4.810. The ultimate target would be around 5.200. In a scenario suggesting a correction, if the price breaks below the first support level of 3.734, the asset could dive to the 3.422 mark. The final target will be the 3.104 level.