22.01.202512:31 Analisis Forex & Kajian: XAU/USD: Analysis and Forecast

Gold prices have sustained positive momentum for three consecutive days. Optimistic market sentiment, coupled with the recovery in U.S. Treasury yields and a moderate strengthening of the U.S. dollar, acts as a barrier to further growth in the precious metal. However, expectations of a potential Federal Reserve rate cut twice this year could limit U.S. bond yields and the dollar, thereby supporting demand for gold.

Additionally, concerns about potential trade tariffs raised by President-elect Donald Trump may encourage investment inflows into gold as a safe-haven asset, further supporting the upward trend. Demand for the yellow metal is expected to remain resilient near the key support levels of $2725–2720, which could prevent further price declines. Investors may consider buying on price corrections, using the support at these levels as a foundation.

Yesterday's breakout through the supply zone of $2725–2720 can be interpreted as a new trigger for bullish activity. With oscillators on the daily chart comfortably in positive territory and still far from overbought levels, sustained strength above the $2750–2760 resistance zone could pave the way for additional gains. Following this, the precious metal may aim to test the historical high of $2790, last reached in October 2024.

On the other hand, any corrective pullback could be viewed as a buying opportunity, limited by the $2725–2720 level. The next support level lies at the psychological level of $2700. A decisive break below this level may trigger aggressive technical selling, potentially dragging gold prices toward the $2660–2650 level. This would pave the way for a test of the confluence area near the round figure of $2600, which aligns with the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and an ascending trendline stretching from the November swing low.

This level serves as a critical pivot point, which will help determine the next directional movement phase for the XAU/USD pair.